Fed rate decisions (Bitcoin's move): all 22 measured cases

How often it went up22 measured cases

These odds in plain words

as of Oct 4, 2026 · counted from every past case of this pattern

Fed rate decisions (Bitcoin's move): 22 of the 63 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 12 of those 22 closed higher — a base rate of 55%, with a 90% range of 38% to 71%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.

• By day 30, 10 of the 21 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (48%).
• The typical day-30 move was −1.9%, the best +45.3% and the worst −26.2%.
• Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran 0.0% vs BTC and beat it in 0.0% of 21 comparable cases.
• Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 62% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.

Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched 2026-10-04 20:33 UTC

Coming upON RECORD10 scheduled

Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern

as of Oct 4, 2026 · upcoming events

10 scheduled Fed rate decisions meet every condition of this pattern. Each one is dated, and its move is measured from that day.

Every past case63 cases

Every past Fed rate decision behind these odds

as of Oct 4, 2026 · events and their measured price moves

All 63 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.

Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched 2026-10-04 20:33 UTC

How this is counted

How these odds are counted

as of Oct 4, 2026 · methodology

This page is a count of 22 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (here, the kind of event alone), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.

• Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
• Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
• Past patterns can stop working.

The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.