Patterns · what usually happens after each kind of event · 621 past events behind 223 patterns

Event patterns and their odds

What the last events like this actually did: every pattern below groups past events by kind, venue, market-cap size, category, unlock size and Bitcoin's trend, and is kept once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move. Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.

Patterns

223

with odds from past cases

Past events

621

measured, each counted in every pattern it fits

Checked on recent cases

150

patterns with 20+ cases

Flipped

newer cases disagree with older ones

Coming up

scheduled events that match a pattern

223 patterns have odds from past cases as of Oct 4, 2026.
A pattern is kept once at least 8 past cases of one kind of event have a measured next-day move.
150 of them have enough cases (20 or more) to be checked on their newest ones, and 48 of those flipped: the newer cases lean the other way.

The detailsevery pattern with its odds and all of its past cases

Every pattern223 patterns

Every pattern, grouped by event kind

as of Oct 4, 2026 · odds counted from past cases

Each row is one pattern: how many past cases it holds, the share that were higher the next day with its 90% range, the 30-day picture and whether it held up on recent cases. Ordered by measured cases — switch to share higher after 30 days.

spot listings 66 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
Listings	173	43%	37%–50%	29%	−21.7%	−90.6%	held up
Listings of tokens outside the big categories	172	44%	38%–50%	29%	−21.6%	−90.6%	held up
OKX listings	105	46%	38%–54%	28%	−22.3%	−90.6%	held up
OKX listings of tokens outside the big categories	104	46%	38%–54%	28%	−23.0%	−90.6%	held up
Listings with BTC above its 50-day average	84	46%	38%–55%	32%	−32.1%	−80.3%	held up
↳ same 84 cases, also listed as: Listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Listings of micro-cap tokens	77	49%	40%–59%	23%	−32.1%	−73.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 77 cases, also listed as: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings with BTC below its 50-day average	70	43%	34%–53%	24%	−21.6%	−90.6%	held up
Listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average	69	43%	34%–53%	24%	−21.5%	−90.6%	held up
Binance listings	68	40%	31%–50%	31%	−19.0%	−73.5%	held up
↳ same 68 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories
Listings of small-cap tokens	62	31%	22%–41%	34%	−13.7%	−90.6%	held up
↳ same 62 cases, also listed as: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX listings with BTC above its 50-day average	55	47%	37%–58%	34%	−32.1%	−80.3%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 55 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX listings of micro-cap tokens	49	55%	43%–66%	22%	−33.4%	−70.9%	held up
↳ same 49 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX listings with BTC below its 50-day average	46	46%	34%–58%	19%	−21.5%	−90.6%	⚠ flipped
OKX listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average	45	47%	35%–59%	20%	−20.4%	−90.6%	held up
Listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	39	51%	38%–64%	25%	−37.8%	−70.9%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 39 cases, also listed as: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX listings of small-cap tokens	37	27%	17%–40%	35%	−13.9%	−90.6%	held up
↳ same 37 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	31	32%	20%–47%	41%	−24.0%	−80.3%	held up
↳ same 31 cases, also listed as: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Listings of mid-cap tokens	30	50%	36%–64%	34%	−6.9%	−48.1%	held up
↳ same 30 cases, also listed as: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	30	50%	36%–64%	22%	−27.1%	−73.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 30 cases, also listed as: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings with BTC above its 50-day average	29	45%	31%–60%	29%	−29.2%	−64.8%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 29 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	29	52%	37%–66%	23%	−37.8%	−70.9%	held up
↳ same 29 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings of micro-cap tokens	28	39%	26%–55%	26%	−30.7%	−73.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 28 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance listings of small-cap tokens	25	36%	22%–52%	33%	−13.4%	−65.5%	held up
↳ same 25 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	25	28%	16%–44%	24%	−19.3%	−90.6%	held up
↳ same 25 cases, also listed as: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings with BTC below its 50-day average	24	38%	23%–54%	32%	−24.9%	−73.5%	held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	20	60%	42%–76%	19%	−23.6%	−55.6%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 20 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	19	32%	17%–50%	42%	−31.7%	−80.3%	under 20
↳ same 19 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX listings of mid-cap tokens	16	56%	36%–74%	31%	−7.0%	−37.6%	under 20
↳ same 16 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	15	20%	8%–41%	20%	−19.3%	−90.6%	under 20
↳ same 15 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings of mid-cap tokens	14	43%	24%–64%	38%	−0.1%	−48.1%	under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	13	54%	32%–74%	31%	−6.9%	−34.3%	under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	12	33%	16%–57%	38%	−21.6%	−64.8%	under 20
↳ same 12 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	12	58%	36%–78%	27%	−13.5%	−48.1%	under 20
↳ same 12 cases, also listed as: Listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	10	50%	27%–73%	30%	−37.5%	−61.4%	under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	10	40%	19%–65%	30%	−19.1%	−65.5%	under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	10	30%	13%–56%	27%	−30.7%	−73.5%	under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Binance listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average thin	9	56%	30%–78%	22%	−7.8%	−34.3%	under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: OKX listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average

perpetual listings 46 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
Perp listings	141	42%	35%–49%	30%	−23.0%	−91.3%	held up
Perp listings of tokens outside the big categories	139	41%	34%–48%	30%	−23.0%	−91.3%	held up
OKX perp listings	132	42%	35%–49%	30%	−22.7%	−91.3%	held up
OKX perp listings of tokens outside the big categories	131	41%	34%–48%	31%	−22.3%	−91.3%	held up
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens	69	39%	30%–49%	24%	−36.0%	−73.6%	held up
↳ same 69 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings with BTC below its 50-day average	67	39%	30%–49%	26%	−24.8%	−91.3%	held up
OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens	66	41%	32%–51%	25%	−36.9%	−73.6%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 66 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings with BTC above its 50-day average	66	47%	37%–57%	30%	−30.1%	−80.3%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 66 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average	65	37%	28%–47%	26%	−24.8%	−91.3%	held up
OKX perp listings with BTC below its 50-day average	63	38%	29%–48%	26%	−24.8%	−91.3%	held up
OKX perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average	62	37%	28%–48%	27%	−23.9%	−91.3%	held up
OKX perp listings with BTC above its 50-day average	61	48%	37%–58%	31%	−27.6%	−80.3%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 61 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of small-cap tokens	52	37%	26%–48%	33%	−19.1%	−91.3%	held up
↳ same 52 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens	51	35%	25%–47%	34%	−18.9%	−91.3%	held up
↳ same 51 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	39	33%	22%–46%	24%	−39.5%	−73.6%	held up
↳ same 39 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	37	35%	24%–49%	25%	−39.2%	−73.6%	held up
↳ same 37 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	28	46%	32%–62%	23%	−37.8%	−70.9%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 28 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	27	41%	27%–56%	30%	−25.1%	−80.3%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 27 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	27	48%	33%–63%	24%	−38.7%	−70.9%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 27 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	26	38%	25%–55%	31%	−23.3%	−80.3%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 26 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	20	35%	20%–53%	27%	−20.3%	−91.3%	held up
↳ same 20 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average · OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average · OKX perp listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Perp listings of mid-cap tokens	18	61%	42%–77%	47%	−1.3%	−54.5%	under 20
Perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories	17	59%	39%–76%	44%	−2.0%	−54.5%	under 20
OKX perp listings of mid-cap tokens	14	64%	43%–81%	46%	−2.8%	−54.5%	under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Perp listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	11	64%	39%–82%	50%	−0.4%	−37.6%	under 20
↳ same 11 cases, also listed as: Perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance perp listings thin	9	44%	22%–70%	22%	−31.6%	−52.5%	under 20
Binance perp listings of tokens outside the big categories thin	8	38%	16%–65%	12%	−33.0%	−52.5%	under 20
OKX perp listings of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average thin	8	75%	46%–91%	57%	+13.4%	−37.6%	under 20
↳ same 8 cases, also listed as: OKX perp listings of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average

delistings 36 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
Delistings	78	8%	4%–14%	6%	−18.9%	−42.5%	held up
Delistings of tokens outside the big categories	77	8%	4%–14%	6%	−18.9%	−42.5%	held up
Binance delistings	64	8%	4%–15%	0%	−6.7%	−34.7%	held up
Delistings of micro-cap tokens	64	6%	3%–13%	0%	−22.0%	−42.5%	held up
↳ same 64 cases, also listed as: Delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance delistings of tokens outside the big categories	63	8%	4%–15%	0%	−6.7%	−34.7%	held up
Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens	54	7%	3%–16%	0%	−20.7%	−34.7%	held up
↳ same 54 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Delistings with BTC below its 50-day average	41	7%	3%–17%	7%	−18.9%	−42.5%	held up
↳ same 41 cases, also listed as: Delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	33	6%	2%–17%	0%	−22.0%	−42.5%	held up
↳ same 33 cases, also listed as: Delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Binance delistings with BTC below its 50-day average	28	7%	2%–19%	0%	−3.4%	−6.7%	held up
↳ same 28 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Delistings with BTC above its 50-day average	27	7%	2%–20%	0%	−9.8%	−9.8%	held up
↳ same 27 cases, also listed as: Delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance delistings with BTC above its 50-day average	26	8%	3%–21%	—	—	—	held up
↳ same 26 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	25	8%	3%–22%	0%	−9.8%	−9.8%	held up
↳ same 25 cases, also listed as: Delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	24	8%	3%–22%	—	—	—	held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	24	8%	3%–22%	0%	−6.7%	−6.7%	held up
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
OKX delistings	14	7%	2%–27%	8%	−22.0%	−42.5%	under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: OKX delistings of tokens outside the big categories
OKX delistings with BTC below its 50-day average	13	8%	2%–28%	8%	−24.0%	−42.5%	under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: OKX delistings of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Delistings of small-cap tokens	11	9%	2%–32%	0%	−26.6%	−31.0%	under 20
↳ same 11 cases, also listed as: Delistings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX delistings of micro-cap tokens	10	0%	0%–21%	0%	−22.0%	−42.5%	under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: OKX delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Binance delistings of small-cap tokens thin	9	11%	3%–38%	0%	−0.1%	−0.1%	under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: Binance delistings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
OKX delistings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average thin	9	0%	0%–23%	0%	−24.0%	−42.5%	under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: OKX delistings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average

unlocks 52 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
Unlocks	96	47%	39%–55%	42%	−3.1%	−54.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 96 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories
Unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply	49	41%	30%–53%	50%	−0.1%	−54.5%	held up
↳ same 49 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply
Unlocks with BTC above its 50-day average	48	50%	38%–62%	36%	−7.4%	−51.4%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 48 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks with BTC below its 50-day average	48	44%	33%–56%	46%	−1.0%	−54.5%	held up
↳ same 48 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks over 2% of supply	47	53%	41%–65%	33%	−6.2%	−51.4%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 47 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens	42	36%	25%–48%	42%	−5.5%	−54.5%	held up
↳ same 42 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens	40	60%	47%–72%	38%	−6.3%	−51.4%	held up
↳ same 40 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens over 2% of supply	30	63%	48%–76%	33%	−7.2%	−51.4%	held up
↳ same 30 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply	29	34%	22%–50%	46%	−4.2%	−54.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 29 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply
Unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average	25	32%	19%–48%	58%	+1.7%	−54.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 25 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks over 2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average	24	50%	34%–66%	33%	−10.1%	−51.4%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average	24	50%	34%–66%	39%	−6.3%	−50.5%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 24 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks over 2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average	23	57%	40%–72%	33%	−2.5%	−36.4%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 23 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	22	32%	18%–49%	45%	−5.1%	−54.5%	held up
↳ same 22 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	21	62%	44%–77%	50%	+0.7%	−36.4%	held up
↳ same 21 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	20	40%	24%–58%	38%	−5.5%	−47.7%	⚠ flipped
↳ same 20 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	19	58%	39%–74%	24%	−22.0%	−51.4%	under 20
↳ same 19 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens over 2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average	16	69%	48%–84%	41%	−1.5%	−36.4%	under 20
↳ same 16 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average	16	31%	16%–52%	56%	+0.7%	−54.5%	under 20
↳ same 16 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens over 2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average	14	57%	36%–76%	23%	−22.0%	−51.4%	under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks of small-cap tokens	14	43%	24%–64%	55%	+2.8%	−42.7%	under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens over 2% of supply	13	38%	20%–61%	33%	−11.5%	−46.6%	under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply
Unlocks of mid-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average	13	38%	20%–61%	30%	−6.3%	−47.7%	under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of mid-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply	10	50%	27%–73%	56%	+4.7%	−50.5%	under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply
Unlocks of small-cap tokens of 0.5-2% of supply	10	50%	27%–73%	62%	+18.5%	−42.7%	under 20
↳ same 10 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories of 0.5-2% of supply
Unlocks of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average thin	9	56%	30%–78%	67%	+5.0%	−42.7%	under 20
↳ same 9 cases, also listed as: Unlocks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average

hacks 18 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
Hacks	79	27%	19%–35%	31%	−14.3%	−90.4%	held up
Hacks of tokens outside the big categories	78	27%	20%–36%	31%	−14.5%	−90.4%	held up
Hacks of micro-cap tokens	49	24%	16%–36%	26%	−17.2%	−63.4%	held up
↳ same 49 cases, also listed as: Hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories
Hacks with BTC above its 50-day average	46	24%	15%–36%	24%	−17.5%	−63.4%	held up
Hacks of tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average	45	24%	16%–36%	24%	−17.8%	−63.4%	held up
Hacks of micro-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	29	28%	16%–43%	15%	−19.5%	−63.4%	held up
↳ same 29 cases, also listed as: Hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Hacks with BTC below its 50-day average	27	26%	15%–42%	37%	−10.1%	−90.4%	held up
↳ same 27 cases, also listed as: Hacks of tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Hacks of small-cap tokens	21	19%	9%–36%	33%	−14.7%	−90.4%	held up
↳ same 21 cases, also listed as: Hacks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories
Hacks of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average	14	7%	2%–27%	36%	−9.4%	−46.9%	under 20
↳ same 14 cases, also listed as: Hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average
Hacks of small-cap tokens with BTC above its 50-day average	13	15%	5%–37%	38%	−10.5%	−34.9%	under 20
↳ same 13 cases, also listed as: Hacks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average
Hacks of small-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average thin	8	25%	9%–54%	25%	−24.6%	−90.4%	under 20
↳ same 8 cases, also listed as: Hacks of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average

Fed rate decisions 2 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
Fed rate decisions (Bitcoin's move)	22	55%	38%–71%	48%	−1.9%	−26.2%	⚠ flipped
Fed rate decisions (Bitcoin's move) with BTC above its 50-day average	15	67%	46%–83%	50%	+0.5%	−16.8%	under 20

US CPI releases 3 patterns

Pattern	Cases	Up next day	Odds · 90% range	Up 30d	Median 30d	Worst 30d	Recent cases
US CPI releases (Bitcoin's move)	32	72%	58%–83%	61%	+2.4%	−27.4%	held up
US CPI releases (Bitcoin's move) with BTC above its 50-day average	18	67%	47%–82%	47%	−1.3%	−27.4%	under 20
US CPI releases (Bitcoin's move) with BTC below its 50-day average	12	83%	60%–94%	75%	+4.9%	−21.1%	under 20

Source: counted over every measured event on record · fetched 2026-10-04 19:28 UTC

How the odds are counted

as of Oct 4, 2026 · methodology

Every figure counts past cases, with a 90% range; it is not financial advice, and past patterns can stop working.

A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time: kind, venue, market-cap size at the event date (micro under $50M, small to $500M, mid to $5B, large above), category group, unlock size and Bitcoin's trend (close above or below its own 50-day average). Patterns go from broad to specific, and every combination with at least 8 measured next-day moves is kept.

Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval), so 60% on 10 cases prints a wide band and the same 60% on 60 cases a narrow one. Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are re-counted on their older 60% of cases versus the newest 40%; a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped everywhere it is shown.

A scheduled event is matched to the most specific pattern whose every condition it meets (ties go to the larger count). Full write-up on the methodology page.

Every pattern, grouped by event kind

How the odds are counted

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