PATTERN+ PREDICTIONS
Updated

Setups · named patterns re-measured on our own prices every day

Setups: what usually happens next, counted

4 named setups are re-measured on our own price history every day; 124 fire today. Each one is a plain rule; we count every past time it fired, how often the price went the expected way, and whether that held up on the newest cases.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.

Weak and bleeding

✓ Held up on newer cases · 62% → 60% lagged BTC

One of the weakest 20% of coins over the last 90 days and still trading below its 20-day average.

Over the next 10 days these coins did worse than Bitcoin 61% of the time (12,494 cases); the typical gap to Bitcoin was −3.1% (average −0.4%).

Win rate61.2%lagged Bitcoin
Cases12,49410-day hold each
Average−0.4%vs Bitcoin
Typical−3.1%the middle case · below 0 = lagged
Best−86.3%for the setup
Worst+936.0%against it

Firing today · Oct 4, 2026

RAIN60% down in 30 days M64% down in 30 days PI54% down in 30 days BDX67% down in 30 days STABLE69% down in 30 days LUNC59% down in 30 days 2Z54% down in 30 days DEXE59% down in 30 days ZANO54% down in 30 days RIF66% down in 30 days ULTIMA54% down in 30 days AB54% down in 30 days BAS54% down in 30 days KUB59% down in 30 days ALLO71% down in 30 days NEX52% down in 30 days BDCA53% down in 30 days MAGMA55% down in 30 days TROLL52% down in 30 days RAVE52% down in 30 days RVN52% down in 30 days APR53% down in 30 days GWEI52% down in 30 days ZEREBRO71% down in 30 days KTA60% down in 30 days BILL53% down in 30 days CYS52% down in 30 days OPEN63% down in 30 days DEGEN56% down in 30 days HOME62% down in 30 days RIVER56% down in 30 days APEX62% down in 30 days WMTX55% down in 30 days NESno 30-day prediction PRL56% down in 30 days CORE62% down in 30 days FAI56% down in 30 days JCT62% down in 30 days QFI56% down in 30 days SAHARA62% down in 30 days ROBO52% down in 30 days CHEEL56% down in 30 days BIRB62% down in 30 days QKA56% down in 30 days CAW56% down in 30 days XP53% down in 30 days SIREN52% down in 30 days SLX53% down in 30 days BTY56% down in 30 days BASED53% down in 30 days SERV61% down in 30 days CYBER62% down in 30 days BANK53% down in 30 days INX53% down in 30 days COLLECT55% down in 30 days HMSTR56% down in 30 days BLUAI53% down in 30 days GNS53% down in 30 days IDOL52% down in 30 days ERA66% down in 30 days MGO56% down in 30 days TA53% down in 30 days STO62% down in 30 days TAC52% down in 30 days TRIA52% down in 30 days MYX56% down in 30 days UDS52% down in 30 days KISHU53% down in 30 days SUPRA53% down in 30 days SOPH56% down in 30 days PLAY53% down in 30 days DIAM52% down in 30 days XPIN52% down in 30 days SEDA56% down in 30 days WXT53% down in 30 days STAR52% down in 30 days RSC52% down in 30 days WQUIL52% down in 30 days PSG56% down in 30 days L353% down in 30 days LMTS62% down in 30 days PHNIX52% down in 30 days XAVA71% down in 30 days XRD53% down in 30 days DADDY53% down in 30 days BBT52% down in 30 days BGSC56% down in 30 days NIM52% down in 30 days BLD52% down in 30 days ATM52% down in 30 days KONET53% down in 30 days UMXM53% down in 30 days MITO56% down in 30 days LAVA52% down in 30 days HANA53% down in 30 days ASP56% down in 30 days RION58% down in 30 days MNFT67% down in 30 days AVICI62% down in 30 days DINGO52% down in 30 days MYRO56% down in 30 days PX53% down in 30 days PEIPEI53% down in 30 days RSS355% down in 30 days VOOI52% down in 30 days ESPORTS52% down in 30 days COLS56% down in 30 days GUA56% down in 30 days LAB53% down in 30 days BUY52% down in 30 days SHIDO52% down in 30 days LUCKYno 30-day prediction NODL56% down in 30 days KCT53% down in 30 days GRIN66% down in 30 days WAI66% down in 30 days GMEE52% down in 30 days OFC56% down in 30 days WNCG56% down in 30 days ML56% down in 30 days ARW52% down in 30 days PINGO52% down in 30 days REACT52% down in 30 days

Volume spike in an uptrend

! Mixed: no clear edge in older cases · 51% → 43% higher

Trading volume jumps far above its 30-day normal while the coin trades above its 20-day average, Bitcoin is above its 50-day average and the coin is one of the 100 most traded.

Over the next 3 days the price was higher 47% of the time (2,304 cases); the typical move was −0.6% (average +1.0%).

Win rate47.4%were higher
Cases2,3043-day hold each
Average+1.0%price move
Typical−0.6%the middle case
Best+176.2%for the setup
Worst−81.2%against it

Firing today · Oct 4, 2026

Not firing on any coin today.

Big unlock this week

✓ Held up on newer cases · 44% → 40% higher

A token unlock of 2% or more of circulating supply is due within the next 7 days.

Over the next 7 days the price was higher 42% of the time (137 cases); the typical move was −2.0% (average −2.0%).

Win rate42.3%were higher
Cases1377-day hold each
Average−2.0%price move
Typical−2.0%the middle case
Best+78.4%for the setup
Worst−74.3%against it

Firing today · Oct 4, 2026

Fresh exchange listing

✓ Held up on newer cases · 34% → 31% higher

Listed for spot trading on a major exchange we track in the last 3 days.

Over the next 7 days the price was higher 33% of the time (155 cases); the typical move was −10.2% (average −5.0%).

Win rate32.9%were higher
Cases1557-day hold each
Average−5.0%price move
Typical−10.2%the middle case
Best+309.1%for the setup
Worst−82.4%against it

Firing today · Oct 4, 2026

Not firing on any coin today.

The detailsthe exact thresholds behind each setup and how its cases are counted

The exact rules

The exact rules

as of · data/setups.py · setups.rule

Weak and bleeding

ConditionValue
weakest share of coins over 90 days0.2
coins needed that day to rank10
price vs its 20-day averagebelow
held for (days)10
measured as10-day return minus BTC's 10-day return
counts as a win whenlags BTC
one open case per coin at a timeyes

Volume spike in an uptrend

ConditionValue
volume above normal by more than (standard deviations)2.0
volume compared with the last (days)30
price vs its 20-day averageat or above
Bitcoin vs its 50-day averageat or above
among the most traded coins (top)100
held for (days)3
measured as3-day return
counts as a win whenprice higher
one open case per coin at a timeyes

Big unlock this week

ConditionValue
unlock of at least (% of supply)2.0
within the next (days)7
held for (days)7
measured as7-day return
counts as a win whenprice higher
one open case per coin at a timeyes

Fresh exchange listing

ConditionValue
spot listing within the last (days)3
exchangestracked
held for (days)7
measured as7-day return
counts as a win whenprice higher
one open case per coin at a timeyes

Method

How setups are measured

as of · data/setups.py

Every rule reads only data dated on or before the day it fires (unlock schedules are published ahead, so their future dates are fair game). A coin can hold only one open case per setup: after it fires, it cannot fire again until its holding window has closed, so cases never overlap. A case counts once its window has closed.

The honesty check splits the cases in time order: the first 60% against the newest 40%. A setup "held up" when the newer cases still win more often than not on the same side and keep at least half of the earlier edge; otherwise it "faded". Under 20 cases there is too little to check.

Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice. A setup firing is a count of what happened the last times, never an instruction to trade.