How often it went up39 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average: 39 of the 51 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 13 of those 39 closed higher — a base rate of 33%, with a 90% range of 22% to 46%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 10 of the 42 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (24%).
- The typical day-30 move was −39.5%, the best +211.6% and the worst −73.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −24.7% vs BTC and beat it in 19.0% of 42 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 26% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled perpetual listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Perp listings of micro-cap tokens →
Every past case51 cases
Every past perpetual listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 51 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| SK Hynix (Backpack Securities) (SKHY) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Orochi Network (ON) | OKX | −5.2% | +211.6% | +210.0% | down next day | |
| Wen (WEN) | OKX | −5.7% | −4.4% | −9.8% | down next day | |
| Nesa (NES) | OKX | −27.3% | −7.8% | −10.1% | down next day | |
| Energy Web Token (EWT) | OKX | −0.6% | −7.5% | −1.3% | sideways next day | |
| NOW Token (NOW) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BounceBit (BB) | OKX | −9.1% | −29.3% | −10.8% | down next day | |
| Solstice (SLX) | OKX | +73.6% | +165.1% | +183.6% | up next day | |
| Irys (IRYS) | OKX | −14.3% | −49.1% | −28.3% | down next day | |
| Block Street (BSB) | OKX | −0.7% | +198.7% | +183.2% | sideways next day | |
| Based (BASED) | OKX | −24.1% | +9.4% | −5.4% | down next day | |
| Metadium (META) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Katana Network (KAT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Fabric Protocol (ROBO) | OKX | — | −44.6% | −42.4% | not measured yet | |
| Opinion (OPN) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| AZTEC (AZTEC) | OKX | — | +9.7% | +6.7% | not measured yet | |
| Tria (TRIA) | OKX | +23.3% | +16.6% | +24.7% | up next day | |
| Spacecoin (SPACE) | OKX | +3.8% | −44.5% | −20.1% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Brevis (BREV) | OKX | — | −47.6% | −44.6% | not measured yet | |
| Bitlight (LIGHT) | OKX | +10.2% | −54.3% | −64.9% | up next day | |
| RaveDAO (RAVE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HumidiFi (WET) | OKX | +60.7% | −4.9% | −5.4% | up next day | |
| Pippin (PIPPIN) | OKX | +11.2% | +108.2% | +105.3% | up next day | |
| Rayls (RLS) | OKX | +8.2% | −49.1% | −52.1% | up next day | |
| Swarm Network (TRUTH) | OKX | −8.3% | −62.2% | −58.5% | down next day | |
| Sapien (SAPIEN) | OKX | −21.1% | −50.8% | −36.7% | down next day | |
| LAB (LAB) | OKX | −0.5% | −63.0% | −41.7% | sideways next day | |
| APRO (AT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Recall Network (RECALL) | OKX | −21.2% | −73.6% | −56.2% | down next day | |
| Enso (ENSO) | OKX | −11.1% | −53.4% | −33.9% | down next day | |
| OPENLOOT (OL) | OKX | +5.7% | −30.7% | −11.2% | up next day | |
| SynFutures (F) | OKX | −1.8% | −59.5% | −39.1% | down next day | |
| Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) | OKX | −20.2% | −52.5% | −32.1% | down next day | |
| Giggle Fund (GIGGLE) | Binance | −20.2% | −52.5% | −32.1% | down next day | |
| Capricorn (APR) | OKX | −40.3% | −57.7% | −36.5% | down next day | |
| KGeN (KGEN) | OKX | −19.4% | −59.6% | −46.3% | down next day | |
| Succinct (PROVE) | OKX | +1.8% | −33.9% | −21.1% | up next day | |
| Zerobase (ZBT) | OKX | −18.2% | −68.8% | −56.0% | down next day | |
| Zora (ZORA) | OKX | −5.2% | −23.9% | −10.0% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | OKX | −15.8% | −72.4% | −65.8% | down next day | |
| Linea (LINEA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| WalletConnect Token (WCT) | OKX | +52.7% | +77.4% | +54.7% | up next day | |
| Babylon (BABY) | OKX | +31.6% | +13.4% | −13.5% | up next day | |
| Particle Network (PARTI) | OKX | +4.7% | −46.4% | −53.8% | up next day | |
| GoPlus (GPS) | OKX | −9.4% | −66.3% | −62.8% | down next day | |
| MyShell (SHELL) | OKX | −18.5% | −64.0% | −62.1% | down next day | |
| Solayer (LAYER) | OKX | −6.4% | +14.3% | +31.0% | down next day | |
| Berachain (BERA) | OKX | −11.7% | −22.3% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Dogs (DOGS) | Binance | −0.1% | −34.5% | −41.6% | sideways next day | |
| zkSync (ZK) | OKX | +5.3% | −21.5% | −17.7% | up next day | |
| cat in a dogs world (MEW) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 39 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 33% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 13 of the 39 measured past cases of perp listings of micro-cap tokens with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 22% to 46% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 39.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 26% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 51 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every perpetual listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.