How often it went up39 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 39 of the 46 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 20 of those 39 closed higher — a base rate of 51%, with a 90% range of 38% to 64%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 10 of the 40 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (25%).
- The typical day-30 move was −37.8%, the best +174.7% and the worst −70.9%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −35.0% vs BTC and beat it in 17.5% of 40 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 61% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case46 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 46 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Metadium (META) | Binance | — | in 14 days | in 14 days | not measured yet | |
| DappOS (DOS) | OKX | −15.1% | −34.7% | −56.5% | down next day | |
| GRVT Token (GRVT) | OKX | +13.1% | −30.1% | −52.4% | up next day | |
| XTER (XTER) | OKX | +3.7% | +23.5% | +1.8% | up next day | |
| AEON (AEON) | OKX | −7.3% | −40.9% | −61.7% | down next day | |
| OneFootball Club (OFC) | OKX | +17.8% | +22.7% | +9.2% | up next day | |
| Katana Network (KAT) | OKX | −12.1% | −14.3% | −18.6% | down next day | |
| Panther Protocol (ZKP) | Binance | −24.2% | −61.4% | −36.7% | down next day | |
| Brevis (BREV) | OKX | +23.9% | −64.2% | −31.2% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Linea (LINEA) | OKX | +4.4% | −32.1% | −20.5% | up next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | OKX | −19.0% | −55.7% | −37.0% | down next day | |
| Lombard (BARD) | OKX | −12.2% | −41.1% | −33.2% | down next day | |
| Veranta (AVNT) | Binance | −18.2% | −52.6% | −48.7% | down next day | |
| Aspecta (ASP) | OKX | +4.5% | −34.4% | −31.6% | up next day | |
| Sahara AI (SAHARA) | OKX | −10.9% | +1.3% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Spark (SPK) | OKX | −13.3% | −42.6% | −54.2% | down next day | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | OKX | — | −55.9% | −61.1% | not measured yet | |
| Sophon (SOPH) | OKX | −14.6% | −50.9% | −49.2% | down next day | |
| Solayer (LAYER) | OKX | +16.5% | −54.4% | −70.4% | up next day | |
| Vine Coin (VINE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Animecoin (ANIME) | OKX | −30.2% | −70.9% | −64.0% | down next day | |
| aixbt by Virtuals (AIXBT) | OKX | +26.6% | −62.1% | −63.0% | up next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Magic Eden (ME) | OKX | −4.3% | −52.7% | −47.9% | down next day | |
| Magic Eden (ME) | Binance | −4.3% | −52.7% | −47.9% | down next day | |
| Movement (MOVE) | OKX | +0.6% | +22.8% | +28.8% | sideways next day | |
| Movement (MOVE) | Binance | +0.6% | +22.8% | +28.8% | sideways next day | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | Binance | −9.0% | −42.9% | −44.3% | down next day | |
| OPENLOOT (OL) | OKX | +84.2% | +174.7% | +167.0% | up next day | |
| Moo Deng (moodengsol.com) (MOODENG) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Act I : The AI Prophecy (ACT) | OKX | +23.6% | −5.4% | −17.6% | up next day | |
| Act I : The AI Prophecy (ACT) | Binance | +24.9% | +22.2% | −3.7% | up next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | Binance | +29.8% | +47.1% | +3.3% | up next day | |
| Scroll (SCR) | OKX | +8.2% | +60.4% | +17.1% | up next day | |
| Simon's Cat (CAT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| First Neiro On Ethereum (NEIRO) | OKX | −13.1% | +12.8% | −33.2% | down next day | |
| Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) | OKX | +4.8% | −56.7% | −63.0% | up next day | |
| Catizen (CATI) | OKX | −0.8% | −50.4% | −60.1% | sideways next day | |
| Dogs (DOGS) | OKX | +1.4% | −32.1% | −30.5% | up next day | |
| Gravity (G) | OKX | −2.3% | −19.7% | −17.3% | down next day | |
| Degen (Base) (DEGEN) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| zkSync (ZK) | Binance | +3.4% | −21.7% | −17.9% | up next day | |
| Tensor (TNSR) | OKX | +10.1% | −53.1% | −41.3% | up next day | |
| Tensor (TNSR) | Binance | +10.1% | −53.1% | −41.3% | up next day | |
| Aevo (AEVO) | OKX | −6.5% | −41.5% | −35.5% | down next day | |
| Metis Token (METIS) | Binance | −1.8% | −32.1% | −34.5% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 39 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 51% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 20 of the 39 measured past cases of listings of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 38% to 64% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 39.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 61% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 38% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 46 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.