How often it went up14 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of micro-cap tokens over 2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average: 14 of the 25 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 8 of those 14 closed higher — a base rate of 57%, with a 90% range of 36% to 76%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 3 of the 13 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (23%).
- The typical day-30 move was −22.0%, the best +397.8% and the worst −51.4%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −11.6% vs BTC and beat it in 23.1% of 13 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 14 as of Oct 4, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled unlock can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Unlocks of micro-cap tokens over 2% of supply →
Every past case25 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 25 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | +0.1% | in 15 days | in 15 days | sideways next day | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | 2.2% of circ. | −11.2% | in 11 days | in 11 days | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 4.5% of circ. | — | in 5 days | in 5 days | not measured yet | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | +10.0% | +33.3% | +8.3% | up next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 4.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | −7.6% | −22.0% | −21.9% | down next day | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | +2.9% | −25.7% | −7.4% | up next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Limitless (LMTS) | 7.6% of circ. | +14.3% | −20.6% | +0.8% | up next day | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | −5.1% | −10.1% | −11.6% | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +0.5% | −34.6% | −27.4% | sideways next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | −13.5% | −51.4% | −45.0% | down next day | |
| READY! (READY) | 2.6% of circ. | −0.6% | +397.8% | +398.7% | sideways next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 14.2% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +2.5% | −6.2% | −2.6% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | −11.8% | −22.0% | −17.8% | down next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +5.2% | +2.8% | −4.4% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +8.2% | −33.3% | −36.3% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | — | −36.3% | −29.4% | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| READY! (READY) | 2.6% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 14 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (market-cap bucket, BTC regime and unlock size), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 57% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 8 of the 14 measured past cases of unlocks of micro-cap tokens over 2% of supply with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 36% to 76% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 14.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 14.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 25 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.