$4.5+7.8%24hmcap $295.19M · its own chain · rank #154
1
The prediction
as of Oct 4, 2026
AR price prediction for tomorrow
52%chance AR is lower
↔ COIN FLIP
Market cap $295.19M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 1-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 48% chance higher tomorrow · this pattern's 1d calls hit 46.4% of 10,929 — no better than a coin flip so far · drawn from the 2088 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next day
−40%−20%0%−20%−10%0%+10%+20%+68% in 30 days↑ 95% below its all-time high
−30dnow+1d
▲ 9 rose · ▼ 12 fell · ◆ 9 sideways(±3.1% over 1 day)
Bold: AR's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2088 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next day — real hourly closes, scaled to AR's volatility. 30 with no hourly path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$4.05−8%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$4.41−0.5%half did better, half worse
Good case$4.82+9%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−0.5%
Likely range
−8% to +9%$4.05 – $4.82
2,459 similar setups · our 1-day calls hit 49.8% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
AR price prediction for this week
57%chance AR is lower
▼ LEAN DOWN
Market cap $295.19M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 7-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 43% chance higher in 7 days · this pattern's 7d calls hit 59.3% of 36,473 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (60%) so far · drawn from the 2088 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next 7 days
−40%−20%0%−50%−25%0%+25%+50%+75%+68% in 30 days↑ 95% below its all-time high
−30dnow+7d
▲ 7 rose · ▼ 14 fell · ◆ 9 sideways(±7.1% over 7 days)
Bold: AR's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2088 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next 7 days — real 4-hour closes, scaled to AR's volatility. 30 with no 4-hour path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$3.28−26%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$4.28−3.2%half did better, half worse
Good case$5.70+29%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−3.2%
Likely range
−26% to +29%$3.28 – $5.70
2,326 similar setups · our 7-day calls hit 59.4% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
AR price prediction for the next 30 days
70%chance AR is lower
▼ STRONG DOWN
Market cap $295.19M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven record on this coin yet — the prediction above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 30% chance higher in 30 days · drawn from its 2088 matched past setups
next 30 days
−40%−20%0%−100%−50%0%+50%+100%+150%+68% in 30 days↑ 95% below its all-time high
−30dnow+30d
▲ 6 rose · ▼ 19 fell · ◆ 5 sideways(±12% over 30 days)
Bold: AR's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 2088 past setups like this, and what each did over the next 30 days — real daily closes, scaled to AR's volatility.
Bad case$2.19−51%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$3.69−16.6%half did better, half worse
Good case$6.58+49%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−16.6%
Likely range
−51% to +49%$2.19 – $6.58
2,088 similar setups · our 30-day calls hit 63.7% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
Pick a side, when you close and your leverage: we replay that exact trade on the past cases behind this AR prediction and count how it ended.
Best historical window for AR in setups like this: short, hold 2 days, 4× — profitable 59.0% of the time, typical +8.5%, liquidated 7.9% of the time (n=2088).
Chance this ends in profit—
Typical result—half did better, half worse
Chance you get liquidated first—
Every past case, replayedhover or tap a line to see the case
price went your way —against you —sideways —(within ±1.4% over 2 days)✕liquidated —take profit hit —stop loss hit —typical8 in 10 cases
Replays 370 past cases weighted exactly like the 30-day prediction: the 2,088 similar cases behind it plus a sample of all history.
Where the odds were best· swipe for longer holds →
cell = chance of profit color = average result, −50% or worse to +50% or better striped = liquidated in more than 1 in 10★ best: highest typical result with at most 1 in 10 liquidated, most cases in profit and an average above zerono take profit or stop loss · tap a cell to load it
The planner and its replay chart run in your browser: turn on JavaScript to replay your own AR trade on these past cases.
Odds from similar past cases, not financial advice. Leverage multiplies losses too: a liquidated position loses its whole margin.
Where to trade AR · by share of the last day's volume
AR$4.570% ▼ 30Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 30Dopen calculator
2
Why we think this
the reasoning, in short
Drivers
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in AR's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (2,459 cases) into 48% higher.
91% below its high
91% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher a day later 47% of the time (131,564 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 47% · normal 46% higher a day later
Up 68% over 30 days
Up 68% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (39,806 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Normal volume
Trading volume is in its normal range. On normal-volume days, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (168,672 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (90,261 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 7 days later 42% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in AR's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (2,326 cases) into 43% higher.
Up 68% over 30 days
Up 68% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a week later 43% of the time (38,824 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 43% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a week later 42% of the time (88,458 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($295.2M market cap). Coins this size were higher a week later 42% of the time (63,184 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Within 7% of a week ago
Within 7% of its price a week ago (−6%). After a week like that, coins were higher a week later 42% of the time (88,734 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 30 days later 37% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in AR's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (2,088 cases) into 30% higher.
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher 30 days later 39% of the time (82,194 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 39% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Up 68% over 30 days
Up 68% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (35,679 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($295.2M market cap). Coins this size were higher 30 days later 35% of the time (61,807 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 35% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
91% below its high
91% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher 30 days later 38% of the time (124,083 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 38% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Our record on AR
Our last 6 calls on AR over 30 days: right on 0 of 6 · 1 of 6 ended inside our range · all-time on AR: 59.1% hit rate, 70.8% inside the range (44 backtested calls)
Jul 26 said 64% down · ended +15.1%✗ wrongAug 2 said 57% down · ended +30.4%✗ wrongAug 9 said 57% down · ended +59.9%✗ wrongAug 16 said 61% down · ended +39.6%✗ wrongAug 23 said 70% down · ended +105.0%✗ wrongAug 30 said 73% down · ended +106.4%✗ wrong
white: AR's real price after each call · bar: the range we gave (8 in 10 cases, the middle half thicker, a notch at the typical move) · end dot: green right · red wrong · orange the price went sideways (within ±5.5% over 30 days) or a coin flip · backtest: each call used only data available that day · live since Oct 3, 2026: 2 live 30-day predictions on record, first result due Nov 2, 2026 · the full scorecard →
last 6 months · daily close · candle = 2 sessions◆ recorded event · dotted blue line = last price · orange = the price went sideways (within ±1.4% over 2 days)
updated today Updated · 31 data points on this page
Changedno field on this page changed since the previous build
The record in shortON RECORD
The record in short
as of · generated from this record's own rowsread it →
events on record
4
higher 30 days after
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typical 30-day move
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next up
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Every eventMEASURED4 events
The record: every event and what followed
as of · CoinPaprika · DefiLlama · exchange announcements · PatternPlus effectsread it →
AR: 4 events, newest first; six signed numbers per row are the price change from the close before the event, in UTC; vs BTC is the difference of the two 30-day moves
AR-USDT-SWAP perpetual trading. OKX opened perpetual futures for AR on Feb 14, 2023; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
AR-USDT spot trading (quotes: EUR, USDT, USDC). OKX listed AR on Dec 24, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
all-time high AR all-time high: $97.32
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derived
Highest daily close in our price history. AR set an all-time high on Aug 31, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Source: PatternPlus, computed from every token in the peer set · fetched
4
The full write-up
every sentence on AR · questions · sources
AR in short
Arweave (AR), a crypto token on its own chain with no start date recorded, stands at rank #154 by market cap as of Oct 4, 2026, 95.4% below its Aug 31, 2021 high.
As of Oct 4, 2026 the price is $4.5 (+7.8% over 24 hours), market cap $295.2M, fully diluted value $295.2M, holder count not reported, no TVL reported to DefiLlama.
Status on CoinPaprika: active; AR is the native coin of its own chain, so there is no token contract.
CoinPaprika tickers and DefiLlama, read Oct 4, 2026.
As of Oct 4, 2026 the record for Arweave runs to 4 events, of which 2 are spot listings, 1 perpetual listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 funding rounds; 0 carry a day-30 measurement with a median of not yet measurable.
From the latest data refresh
Arweave (AR) is a crypto token on its own chain, rank #154 by market cap as of Oct 4, 2026, 95.4% below its Aug 31, 2021 high.
4 events are on record as of Oct 4, 2026.
Since PatternPlus began recording on Oct 3, 2026 (2 daily snapshots), rank moved from #154 to #154.
AR is on 2 spot and 1 perpetual venues on record; the earliest dated listing was OKX (spot) on Dec 24, 2021.
No listing of AR has a measurable day-30 outcome yet as of Oct 4, 2026.
No unlock schedule is on record for AR as of Oct 4, 2026.
No on-chain power check is on record for AR as of Oct 4, 2026.
No funding round is recorded by DefiLlama for Arweave as of Oct 4, 2026.
Arweave lists 0 audit links on DefiLlama; no hack is recorded as of Oct 4, 2026.
No team member is recorded on CoinPaprika for Arweave as of Oct 4, 2026.
No TVL, fees or revenue are reported to DefiLlama for Arweave as of Oct 4, 2026.
Generated from this record's own rows at build time; as of Oct 4, 2026.
No on-chain power check is available for AR on its own chain as of Oct 4, 2026; every row of the panel is shown as unknown until GoPlus or the Jupiter token API answers.
Until then this site cannot say whether the issuer can mint, freeze or upgrade AR; the check is retried at every rebuild.
As of Oct 4, 2026AR trades on 2 spot venues and 1 perpetual venues with dated listings, from OKX on Dec 24, 2021 to OKX on Feb 14, 2023; the first perpetual opened on OKX on Feb 14, 2023, 417 days after the first spot pair.
0 delistings are on record for AR as of Oct 4, 2026.
1085 of the 1087 tracked exchanges have no AR listing on record as of Oct 4, 2026 (Bitget, Azbit, Coinbase, Pionex, WEEX and Lbank, among others).
exchange_listings from instrument APIs and announcements; as of Oct 4, 2026.
Arweave trades 95.4% below its all-time high of $97.32, set on Aug 31, 2021, 1,860 days before Oct 4, 2026; over 30 days it moved 0.0% against 0.0% for BTC (beta 1.56).
Price change as of Oct 4, 2026: −0.4% over 1 hour, +7.8% over 24 hours, −5.1% over 7 days, 0.0% over 30 days, 0.0% over 1 year.
Market cap is 100.0% of fully diluted value ($295.2M of $295.2M), so 0.0% of the valuation sits in supply that does not circulate yet.
24-hour volume of $29.5M is 10.0% of market cap as of Oct 4, 2026.
Circulating supply is 65.7M of 65.7M total (100.0%) and a maximum of 66M.
The all tokens on record median 30-day change is 0.0% across 1495 tokens, so AR sits below its peer set.
CoinPaprika tickers read Oct 4, 2026; BTC comparison from the BTC record.
No contract or mint address is recorded for Arweave as of Oct 4, 2026.
No other token on record uses the symbol AR as of Oct 4, 2026.
No former name, former symbol or alias is recorded for Arweave as of Oct 4, 2026.
Identity fields from CoinPaprika as of Oct 4, 2026: start date not recorded, first market data Feb 4, 2021, proof type not stated, organisation structure not stated, no whitepaper link.
Cross-references as of Oct 4, 2026: CoinPaprika id ar-arweave, no DefiLlama slug, no GitHub repository recorded.
No follower or star counts were read for Arweave as of Oct 4, 2026.
CoinPaprika /coins and DefiLlama /protocols (contract addresses), token_contracts, token_aliases; read Oct 4, 2026.
Among 1495 all tokens on record tokens, Arweave is at the 90th percentile by market cap, 47th by distance from ATH and unranked by share unlocked as of Oct 4, 2026.
The peer median market cap is $13.9M, the median distance from ATH −94.9% and the median 30-day change 0.0%.
The nearest peers by rank are Syrup Token (#153), Bonk (#155), Stader ETHx (#152), Celestia (#156) and Gnosis (#151).
Market cap: $295.2M (P90 of 1495; peer median $13.9M).
Volume / market cap (24h): 10.00% (P78 of 1495; peer median 2.47%).
30-day change: 0.0% (P50 of 1495; peer median 0.0%).
Distance from ATH: −95.4% (P47 of 1495; peer median −94.9%).
peer set: all tokens on record (1495 tokens); as of Oct 4, 2026.
3 of 5 coins with 120+ days of supply history release on a monthly or quarterly pattern; 14 releases projected: APT (monthly, day 14), ARB (quarterly, day 18), ENA (monthly, day 6)
2026-10-04 19:24 UTC
none
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teamfinance
0 of 5 coins hold Team Finance vesting; 4 contracts still being read for the first time
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2026-10-04T19:23:55+00:00 Ethereum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY; Optimism logs: HTTP 429; Polygon logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY; Base logs: HTTP 429; Arbitrum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY
Effects are measured as described on the methodology page. Facts are compiled from public sources; nothing on this page is advice. Corrections: [email protected].
binance_instruments last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:42+00:00 451 Client Error: for url: https://fapi.binance.com/f), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
bybit_announcements last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:46+00:00 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.bybit), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
bybit_instruments last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:43+00:00 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.bybit), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
ethplorer last fetched successfully on Oct 4, 2026 19:21 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:21:17+00:00 HTTP 429 https://api.ethplorer.io/getTokenInfo/0x08280), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
hedgey last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:23:55+00:00 Ethereum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY;
Optimism logs: HTTP 4), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
This page is generated from 6,173 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 4, 2026.
PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this
Band 1 is the prediction: the chance of a higher price, the typical move and the likely range, with the real past setups behind it drawn as they moved.
Band 2 is why: the drivers, the next events and how our past calls on this coin went.
Band 3 is the data: every table and chart, dated; green means the price was higher afterwards, red lower.
Band 4 is the write-up: the same record in words, with the questions and the sources.