How often it went up49 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories: 49 of the 132 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 12 of those 49 closed higher — a base rate of 24%, with a 90% range of 16% to 36%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 12 of the 47 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (26%).
- The typical day-30 move was −17.2%, the best +162.6% and the worst −63.4%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −18.1% vs BTC and beat it in 26.2% of 42 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 28% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 20% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET No scheduled hack meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 4, 2026.
Every past case132 cases
Every past hack behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 132 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Nimiq (NIM) | — | −2.9% | in 12 days | in 12 days | down next day | |
| Enso (ENSO) | — | −0.6% | in 5 days | in 5 days | sideways next day | |
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | +0.8% | +27.0% | +19.3% | sideways next day | |
| Radix (XRD) | — | −28.7% | −54.3% | −61.9% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Avici (AVICI) | — | −12.4% | −32.3% | −37.6% | down next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −22.2% | −36.1% | −43.0% | down next day | |
| Nesa (NES) | — | −30.5% | −15.0% | −23.6% | down next day | |
| BounceBit (BB) | — | −11.7% | −19.5% | −44.5% | down next day | |
| Oraichain Token (ORAI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ravencoin (RVN) | — | +1.7% | −13.2% | −38.1% | up next day | |
| Panther Protocol (ZKP) | — | −0.4% | +7.5% | −16.0% | sideways next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | −5.3% | −23.0% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| Wanchain (WAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Across Protocol (ACX) | — | +3.0% | −0.8% | +0.6% | up next day | |
| Test (TST) | — | −0.9% | +31.4% | +34.5% | sideways next day | |
| BarnBridge (BOND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Taiko (TAIKO) | — | −14.7% | −8.0% | −11.5% | down next day | |
| AZTEC (AZTEC) | — | −8.9% | −20.8% | −18.1% | down next day | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MAP Protocol (MAPO) | — | −36.7% | −37.5% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| BankrCoin (BNKR) | — | +4.5% | −17.8% | +0.5% | up next day | |
| Adshares (ADS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TAC Protocol (TAC) | — | −10.4% | −17.2% | +8.0% | down next day | |
| Syndicate (SYND) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ZetaChain (ZETA) | — | −2.0% | −15.6% | −10.3% | down next day | |
| NAVI Protocol (NAVX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| KernelDAO (KERNEL) | — | −18.3% | −24.8% | −24.7% | down next day | |
| Drift Protocol (DRIFT) | — | −40.0% | −41.5% | −56.1% | down next day | |
| Resolv (RESOLV) | — | −10.2% | −46.9% | −54.4% | down next day | |
| Stake DAO (SDT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Solv Protocol (SOLV) | — | −7.0% | +9.5% | +12.1% | down next day | |
| IoTeX (IOTX) | — | −17.6% | 0.0% | −4.2% | down next day | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −6.5% | +2.7% | −3.2% | down next day | |
| Saga (SAGA) | — | −6.8% | −41.4% | −18.3% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Zerobase (ZBT) | — | −4.2% | +17.9% | +19.6% | down next day | |
| Goldfinch (GFI) | — | +2.8% | −25.7% | −28.7% | up next day | |
| DIMO (DIMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Moonwell (WELL) | — | −14.5% | −28.2% | −14.5% | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −3.1% | −38.6% | −25.8% | down next day | |
| OlaXBT (AIO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SuperRare (RARE) | — | −11.4% | −1.2% | +5.7% | down next day | |
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | −42.9% | −63.4% | −71.0% | down next day | |
| Usual (USUAL) | — | +3.1% | −52.1% | −49.8% | up next day | |
| Cetus Protocol (CETUS) | — | −26.6% | −60.7% | −53.8% | down next day | |
| zkSync (ZK) | — | −3.5% | +42.3% | +19.7% | down next day | |
| KiloEx (KILO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −5.1% | −10.7% | −18.1% | down next day | |
| Volt Inu (VOLT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Vestra DAO (VSTR1) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | +19.1% | +96.7% | +70.9% | up next day | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | −1.7% | +5.0% | −9.4% | down next day | |
| PYTHIA (PYTHIA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Echelon Prime (PRIME) | — | −8.2% | −19.1% | −8.5% | down next day | |
| Loopring (LRC) | — | −7.6% | −35.6% | −19.3% | down next day | |
| ALEX Lab (ALEX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zest Protocol (ZEST) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ark (ARK) | — | +7.8% | −13.0% | −16.8% | up next day | |
| Dolomite (DOLO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mobox (MBOX) | — | −18.2% | −44.0% | −36.0% | down next day | |
| WOO (WOO) | — | +2.1% | −27.0% | −27.4% | up next day | |
| KernelDAO (KERNEL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pandora (PANDORA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Spell Token (SPELL) | — | −7.9% | +162.6% | +121.4% | down next day | |
| Saga (SAGA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GAMEE (GMEE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Locus Chain (LOCUS) | — | +3.4% | +13.4% | — | up next day | |
| Mamo (MAMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HTX (HTX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | −2.1% | −10.7% | — | down next day | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | +2.5% | −6.2% | — | up next day | |
| Pond Coin (PNDC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| PaLM AI (PALM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Minto (BTCMT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | 0.0% | −35.6% | — | sideways next day | |
| Hashflow (HFT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Cellframe (CELL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LienFi (LFI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tornado Cash (TORN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Rocket Pool (RPL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Thena (THE) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Euler (EUL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| StarLink (STARL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | +8.0% | +10.0% | — | up next day | |
| Sperax (SPA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Ankr (ANKR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Numbers Protocol (NUM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| TrustSwap (SWAP) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| BabySwap (BABY) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DAO Maker Token (DAO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kyber Network Crystal (KNC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Audius (AUDIO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Osmosis (OSMO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Quickswap [OLD] (QUICK) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Drift Protocol (DRIFT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Terra (LUNA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| INV (INV) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| LCX (LCX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Vulcan Forged (PYR) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DAO Maker Token (DAO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Siren (SIREN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DAO Maker Token (DAO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zerogoki (REI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Multichain (MULTI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Alchemix (ALCX) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Iron Fish (IRON) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| XMAQUINA (DEUS) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DODO (DODO) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Badger (BADGER) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| Sushi (SUSHI) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Origin Protocol (OGN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Grin (GRIN) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Harvest Finance (FARM) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Balancer (BAL) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bancor (BNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bitcoin Gold (BTG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2019 | ||||||
| Vertcoin (VTC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2018 | ||||||
| Vertcoin (VTC) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bancor (BNT) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Bitcoin Gold (BTG) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MonaCoin (MONA) | — | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 49 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 24% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 12 of the 49 measured past cases of hacks of micro-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 16% to 36% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 49.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 28% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 20% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 132 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every hack with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.