How often it went up12 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average: 12 of the 13 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 4 of those 12 closed higher — a base rate of 33%, with a 90% range of 16% to 57%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 5 of the 13 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (38%).
- The typical day-30 move was −21.6%, the best +231.8% and the worst −64.8%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −36.6% vs BTC and beat it in 30.8% of 13 comparable cases.
- No recent-cases check yet: it needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 12 as of Oct 4, 2026.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case13 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 13 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| MegaETH (MEGA) | Binance | −4.2% | −62.1% | −59.6% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | Binance | +84.0% | −21.6% | −24.0% | up next day | |
| Centrifuge (CFG) | Binance | −14.1% | +8.6% | +5.9% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | Binance | +2.3% | +61.3% | +54.1% | up next day | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | Binance | −17.5% | −35.4% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | Binance | −21.5% | −64.8% | −56.3% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Orca (ORCA) | Binance | −10.3% | −41.0% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) | Binance | +13.1% | +231.8% | +206.0% | up next day | |
| CoW Protocol Token (COW) | Binance | −1.7% | −2.3% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | Binance | — | −26.3% | −36.6% | not measured yet | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | Binance | −11.3% | −59.5% | −50.8% | down next day | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | Binance | +19.3% | +129.2% | +128.8% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | Binance | −0.6% | +4.6% | −12.0% | sideways next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 12 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, venue, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 33% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 4 of the 12 measured past cases of binance listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC above its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 16% to 57% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 12.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- Nothing yet — the split needs 20 measured cases and this pattern has 12.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 13 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.