How often it went up25 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average: 25 of the 33 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 7 of those 25 closed higher — a base rate of 28%, with a 90% range of 16% to 44%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 6 of the 25 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (24%).
- The typical day-30 move was −19.3%, the best +128.4% and the worst −90.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −10.9% vs BTC and beat it in 28.0% of 25 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 27% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 30% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled spot listing can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories →
Every past case33 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 33 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Streamr DATAcoin (DATA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | OKX | −5.1% | −54.3% | −59.7% | down next day | |
| RE (RE) | OKX | +104.0% | −9.2% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| RE (RE) | Binance | +104.0% | −9.2% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| SpaceX Tokenized bStocks (SPCXB) | Binance | −0.5% | −13.4% | −13.6% | sideways next day | |
| Espresso (ESP) | Binance | −14.6% | +36.6% | +30.5% | down next day | |
| Sentient (SENT) | OKX | −7.8% | −8.5% | +15.1% | down next day | |
| Sentient (SENT) | Binance | −8.3% | −25.5% | −1.5% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Horizen (ZEN) | OKX | −7.6% | −53.9% | −46.6% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | OKX | +0.4% | −28.5% | −16.9% | sideways next day | |
| Sei (SEI) | OKX | −1.3% | −25.6% | −14.1% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | Binance | +9.1% | −38.4% | −27.1% | up next day | |
| Allora (ALLO) | OKX | −25.4% | −71.5% | −58.8% | down next day | |
| MeMusic (MMT) | OKX | −71.6% | −90.6% | −77.0% | down next day | |
| Kite (KITE) | OKX | −11.0% | +25.2% | +40.7% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Plasma (XPL) | OKX | −4.3% | −69.3% | −67.8% | down next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mubarak (MUBARAK) | Binance | −16.9% | −65.5% | −74.4% | down next day | |
| RedStone (RED) | Binance | −26.8% | −53.9% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | OKX | −12.9% | −19.3% | −6.1% | down next day | |
| Cheems (CHEEMS) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Turbo (TURBO) | Binance | +13.9% | +128.4% | +114.0% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arkham (ARKM) | OKX | +0.2% | +4.1% | +1.9% | sideways next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | OKX | −7.0% | −8.6% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| TONToken (TON) | Binance | +6.4% | −24.9% | −23.1% | up next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | OKX | −11.4% | +54.2% | +50.9% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | Binance | −11.4% | +54.2% | +50.9% | down next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Merlin Chain (MERL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zebec Network (ZBCN) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | OKX | −12.5% | −0.4% | −1.2% | down next day | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 25 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, market-cap bucket and BTC regime), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 28% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 7 of the 25 measured past cases of listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 16% to 44% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 25.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 27% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 30% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 33 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.