How often it went up62 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories: 62 of the 209 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 19 of those 62 closed higher — a base rate of 31%, with a 90% range of 22% to 41%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 22 of the 64 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (34%).
- The typical day-30 move was −13.7%, the best +231.8% and the worst −90.6%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −16.9% vs BTC and beat it in 29.5% of 61 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 30% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 32% of the time, so the count stayed on the same side on the newest cases.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET No scheduled spot listing meets every condition of this pattern as of Oct 4, 2026.
Every past case209 cases
Every past spot listing behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 209 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| EURC (EURC) | OKX | — | in 17 days | in 17 days | not measured yet | |
| Streamr DATAcoin (DATA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Collector Crypt (CARDS) | OKX | −5.1% | −54.3% | −59.7% | down next day | |
| RE (RE) | OKX | +104.0% | −9.2% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| RE (RE) | Binance | +104.0% | −9.2% | −9.7% | up next day | |
| SpaceX Tokenized bStocks (SPCXB) | Binance | −0.5% | −13.4% | −13.6% | sideways next day | |
| Pharos (PROS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| edgeX (EDGE) | OKX | −0.1% | −62.3% | −37.7% | sideways next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | OKX | −4.2% | −62.1% | −59.6% | down next day | |
| MegaETH (MEGA) | Binance | −4.2% | −62.1% | −59.6% | down next day | |
| Ripple USD (RLUSD) | OKX | +0.0% | +0.1% | +3.9% | sideways next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | OKX | −29.7% | −53.4% | −51.9% | down next day | |
| USD.AI (CHIP) | Binance | +84.0% | −21.6% | −24.0% | up next day | |
| Monad (MON) | OKX | +13.7% | +64.1% | +48.8% | up next day | |
| Centrifuge (CFG) | Binance | −14.1% | +8.6% | +5.9% | down next day | |
| Espresso (ESP) | Binance | −14.6% | +36.6% | +30.5% | down next day | |
| Sentient (SENT) | OKX | −7.8% | −8.5% | +15.1% | down next day | |
| Sentient (SENT) | Binance | −8.3% | −25.5% | −1.5% | down next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Horizen (ZEN) | OKX | −7.6% | −53.9% | −46.6% | down next day | |
| DoubleZero (2Z) | OKX | +0.4% | −28.5% | −16.9% | sideways next day | |
| Sei (SEI) | OKX | −1.3% | −25.6% | −14.1% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | Binance | +9.1% | −38.4% | −27.1% | up next day | |
| Allora (ALLO) | OKX | −25.4% | −71.5% | −58.8% | down next day | |
| MeMusic (MMT) | OKX | −71.6% | −90.6% | −77.0% | down next day | |
| Kite (KITE) | OKX | −11.0% | +25.2% | +40.7% | down next day | |
| Meteora (MET) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Toshi (TOSHI) | OKX | +17.1% | −43.5% | −24.8% | up next day | |
| Plasma (XPL) | OKX | −4.3% | −69.3% | −67.8% | down next day | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | OKX | −12.5% | −0.3% | −2.9% | down next day | |
| Vaulta (A) | OKX | −19.3% | −34.1% | −33.7% | down next day | |
| Huma Finance (HUMA) | OKX | −11.4% | −52.2% | −50.7% | down next day | |
| Syrup Token (SYRUP) | Binance | +2.3% | +61.3% | +54.1% | up next day | |
| Kamino (KMNO) | Binance | −17.5% | −35.4% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| Fluid (FLUID) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mubarak (MUBARAK) | Binance | −16.9% | −65.5% | −74.4% | down next day | |
| RedStone (RED) | Binance | −26.8% | −53.9% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| KAITO (KAITO) | OKX | −12.9% | −19.3% | −6.1% | down next day | |
| Cheems (CHEEMS) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sonic (S) | OKX | +14.6% | +67.4% | +71.3% | up next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | OKX | −21.5% | −64.8% | −56.3% | down next day | |
| OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) | Binance | −21.5% | −64.8% | −56.3% | down next day | |
| BIO Protocol (BIO) | OKX | −14.2% | −80.3% | −81.1% | down next day | |
| 2024 | ||||||
| Orca (ORCA) | Binance | −10.3% | −41.0% | −42.5% | down next day | |
| Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) | OKX | +13.1% | +231.8% | +206.0% | up next day | |
| Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) | Binance | +13.1% | +231.8% | +206.0% | up next day | |
| CoW Protocol Token (COW) | Binance | −1.7% | −2.3% | −46.1% | down next day | |
| Kaia (KAIA) | OKX | −5.5% | +44.8% | +11.5% | down next day | |
| Banana For Scale (BANANA) | OKX | +5.5% | +4.5% | −28.7% | up next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | OKX | −19.0% | −31.7% | −42.7% | down next day | |
| Eigenlayer (EIGEN) | Binance | — | −26.3% | −36.6% | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | OKX | −0.9% | +0.0% | −4.3% | sideways next day | |
| Turbo (TURBO) | Binance | +13.9% | +128.4% | +114.0% | up next day | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arkham (ARKM) | OKX | +0.2% | +4.1% | +1.9% | sideways next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | OKX | −7.0% | −8.6% | −10.9% | down next day | |
| TONToken (TON) | Binance | +6.4% | −24.9% | −23.1% | up next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | OKX | −11.4% | +54.2% | +50.9% | down next day | |
| LayerZero (ZRO) | Binance | −11.4% | +54.2% | +50.9% | down next day | |
| Aethir (ATH) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Notcoin (NOT) | OKX | −8.4% | +176.3% | +176.3% | down next day | |
| Safe (SAFE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Merlin Chain (MERL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zebec Network (ZBCN) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | OKX | −12.5% | −0.4% | −1.2% | down next day | |
| Wormhole (W) | OKX | −17.9% | −43.7% | −39.7% | down next day | |
| BOOK OF MEME (BOME) | Binance | −11.3% | −59.5% | −50.8% | down next day | |
| dogwifhat (WIF) | Binance | +19.3% | +129.2% | +128.8% | up next day | |
| Axelar (AXL) | Binance | −0.6% | +4.6% | −12.0% | sideways next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | OKX | −3.7% | +6.3% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| Starknet (STRK) | Binance | −3.7% | +6.3% | −20.2% | down next day | |
| Bonk (BONK) | OKX | +17.3% | −13.9% | −8.4% | up next day | |
| Jito (JTO) | OKX | −6.6% | +10.1% | +15.7% | down next day | |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Bonk (BONK) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Jito (JTO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Blur (BLUR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ordinals (ORDI) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Celestia (TIA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Celestia (TIA) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Enjin Coin (ENJ) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Sei (SEI) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pendle (PENDLE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Turbo (TURBO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ordinals (ORDI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gas (GAS) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Golem (GLM) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Prometeus (PROM) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Blur (BLUR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pharos (PROS) | Binance | — | −8.6% | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2022 | ||||||
| Floki Inu (FLOKI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| GMX (GMX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Terra Classic (LUNC) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Stargate Finance (STG) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Optimism (OP) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Optimism (OP) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Optimism (OP) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mines of Dalarnia (DAR) | Binance | +11.0% | −5.1% | — | up next day | |
| Lido DAO (LDO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Astar (ASTR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Threshold Network (T) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ApeCoin (APE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Astar (ASTR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Kava (KAVA) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Astar (ASTR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JasmyCoin (JASMY) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tezos (XTZ) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ONEchain (ONE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| ONEchain (ONE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2021 | ||||||
| Arweave (AR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Convex Finance (CVX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Amp (AMP) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| JasmyCoin (JASMY) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gala (GALA) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Polygon (MATIC) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| APENFT (NFT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethereum Name Service (ENS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Immutable X (IMX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gala (GALA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gala (GALA) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DYDX Chain (DYDX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| aelf (ELF) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gnosis (GNO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mina Protocol (MINA) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ecomi (OMI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flow (FLOW) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Axie Infinity (AXS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Centrifuge (CFG) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Mina Protocol (MINA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Livepeer (LPT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Arweave (AR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Livepeer (LPT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| SuperVerse (SUPER) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| The Sandbox (SAND) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Velo (VELO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Conflux Network (CFX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Chiliz (CHZ) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Phala Network (PHA) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Flow (FLOW) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Golem (GLM) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Pharos (PROS) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 1INCH (1INCH) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Basic Attention Token (BAT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Celo (CELO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Compound (COMP) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Creditcoin (CTC) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DigiByte (DGB) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| MultiversX (Elrond) (EGLD) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Gas (GAS) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| The Graph (GRT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| IOTA (IOTA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Lisk (LSK) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Decentraland (MANA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| NEO (NEO) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Numeraire (NMR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ontology (ONT) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Phala Network (PHA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Qtum (QTUM) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THETA (THETA) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tellor (TRB) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tezos (XTZ) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Zilliqa (ZIL) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 0x (ZRX) | OKX | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Trust Wallet Token (TWT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Nervos Network (CKB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DeXe (DEXE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| RSK Infrastructure Framework (RIF) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Celo (CELO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| 2020 | ||||||
| 1INCH (1INCH) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| The Graph (GRT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Prometeus (PROM) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Oasis Network (ROSE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Helium (HNT) | Binance | −18.3% | −54.8% | — | down next day | |
| SUN (SUN) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Tellor (TRB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Wrapped NXM (WNXM) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Reserve Rights (RSR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Numeraire (NMR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Aragon (ANT) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| yearn.finance (YFI) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| THORChain (RUNE) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Maker (MKR) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DigiByte (DGB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| VeThor Token (VTHO) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Synthetix Network (SNX) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Siacoin (SC) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Horizen (ZEN) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Compound (COMP) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| DigiByte (DGB) | Binance | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 62 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group and market-cap bucket), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 31% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 19 of the 62 measured past cases of listings of small-cap tokens outside the big categories closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 22% to 41% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 62.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 30% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 32% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 209 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every spot listing with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.