How often it went up23 measured cases
These odds in plain words
as of · counted from every past case of this pattern
Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average: 23 of the 35 past cases on record have a measured next-day move, and 13 of those 23 closed higher — a base rate of 57%, with a 90% range of 40% to 72%, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- By day 30, 8 of the 24 cases measured that far were still above the close before the event (33%).
- The typical day-30 move was −2.5%, the best +32.1% and the worst −36.4%.
- Against Bitcoin over the same 30-day windows, the typical case ran −4.2% vs BTC and beat it in 29.2% of 24 comparable cases.
- Recent-cases check: this pattern flipped — older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 64% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time, so the two halves of the record disagree about its direction.
Source: every past event of this kind and the price move measured after it · fetched
Coming upON RECORD
Coming up: scheduled events that match this pattern
as of · upcoming events
NO DATA YET Bitcoin's trend on a future day is only known on that day, so no scheduled unlock can be matched to this pattern before it happens.
Scheduled ones without the BTC condition: Unlocks of tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply →
Every past case35 cases
Every past unlock behind these odds
as of · events and their measured price moves
All 35 past cases behind the numbers above, newest first. Each row links to the event on its token's page, and a row not measured yet shows when its window closes.
| Date | Token | Venue / size | Next day | 30 days | vs BTC | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ||||||
| Velvet (VELVET) | 4.5% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 2.9% of circ. | −6.1% | +14.5% | +12.9% | down next day | |
| Humanity (H) | 29.4% of circ. | −7.3% | −2.2% | −7.6% | down next day | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | −8.4% | +2.7% | −0.1% | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| HumidiFi (WET) | 83.7% of circ. | +4.2% | +28.4% | +24.5% | up next day | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.0% of circ. | −5.1% | −17.1% | −22.0% | down next day | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | +0.4% | −1.9% | −8.1% | sideways next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.2% of circ. | −10.7% | −31.8% | −24.4% | down next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | +1.8% | −0.3% | −1.6% | up next day | |
| HeyElsa (ELSA) | 2.9% of circ. | +2.5% | −8.2% | −11.9% | up next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.4% of circ. | −4.9% | −24.6% | −16.5% | down next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | −9.2% | −18.7% | −0.4% | down next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | +2.3% | −24.1% | +3.5% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +5.6% | +11.0% | +21.2% | up next day | |
| 2025 | ||||||
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | +1.3% | +32.1% | +32.1% | up next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.7% of circ. | +2.8% | −2.8% | −7.9% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +5.5% | +1.7% | −1.3% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | −5.3% | −13.2% | −15.5% | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Ethena (ENA) | 3.9% of circ. | +0.6% | −21.0% | −6.9% | sideways next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | −1.8% | −1.5% | +19.7% | down next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | −7.8% | +23.6% | +45.2% | down next day | |
| Velvet (VELVET) | 13.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Keeta (KTA) | 2.6% of circ. | — | −36.4% | −46.0% | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | +0.3% | −6.3% | −15.8% | sideways next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | +2.5% | −8.3% | −9.5% | up next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | +0.8% | +16.0% | −1.4% | sideways next day | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 5.8% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 6.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
| Melania Meme (MELANIA) | 7.4% of circ. | — | — | — | not measured yet | |
Source: every event whose token matched the pattern at the time; price moves measured by PatternPlus · fetched
How this is counted
How these odds are counted
as of · methodology
This page is a count of 23 measured past cases, not advice. A pattern is a set of conditions on an event and its token at the time (category group, BTC regime and unlock size), kept once 8 of its cases have a measured next-day move.
- Every share comes with a 90% range (a Wilson interval).
- Patterns with 20 or more measured cases are counted again on their older 60% and newest 40% of cases, and a pattern whose majority side flips is flagged as flipped.
- Past patterns can stop working.
The full method — how patterns are built, the 90% ranges, the recent-cases check and the minimum number of cases — is on the methodology page.
Questions
Questions about this pattern
as of · answers generated from this count
- What does the 57% figure on this page mean?
- It is a base rate: 13 of the 23 measured past cases of unlocks of tokens outside the big categories over 2% of supply with BTC below its 50-day average closed above the close before the event one day later, counted as of Oct 4, 2026.
- It is a count of the past, with a 90% range of 40% to 72% — not advice, and past patterns can stop working.
- How is a case measured?
- Each case compares the last daily UTC close before the event with the closes 1 and 30 days after it, exactly as on every event list on this site.
- The vs-BTC column subtracts Bitcoin's move over the same 30 days.
- Why does this pattern exist and others not?
- A pattern is kept only once at least 8 past cases have a measured next-day move.
- This one has 23.
- Narrower combinations of the same conditions with fewer than 8 cases are left out, and their cases stay counted in the broader pattern.
- What does the recent-cases check say here?
- The record was split 60/40 by date: older cases (the first 60%) were higher the next day 64% of the time and newer cases (the last 40%) 44% of the time.
- A flipped flag means the older and newer halves of the record disagree about the direction.
- Where do the 35 cases come from?
- From this site's own event history: every unlock with a known date whose token met the pattern's conditions at the time, with its moves measured from CoinPaprika daily closes.
- The full list, with dates, is on this page.