No pattern has a proven 1-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 49% chance higher tomorrow · this pattern's 1d calls hit 46.4% of 10,929 — no better than a coin flip so far · drawn from the 79 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next day
−30%−20%−10%0%−5%0%+5%+10%+21% in 30 days↑ 92% below its all-time high
−30dnow+1d
▲ 9 rose · ▼ 11 fell · ◆ 10 sideways(±1.0% over 1 day)
Bold: ADA's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 79 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next day — real hourly closes, scaled to ADA's volatility.
Bad case$0.248−3%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.2560%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.265+4%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−0.0%
Likely range
−3% to +4%$0.248 – $0.265
100 similar setups · our 1-day calls hit 49.8% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
ADA price prediction for this week
56%chance ADA is lower
▼ LEAN DOWN
Market cap $9.53B · large-cap
No pattern has a proven 7-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 44% chance higher in 7 days · this pattern's 7d calls hit 59.3% of 36,473 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (60%) so far · drawn from the 79 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next 7 days
−30%−20%−10%0%−20%0%+20%+40%+21% in 30 days↑ 92% below its all-time high
−30dnow+7d
▲ 8 rose · ▼ 14 fell · ◆ 8 sideways(±2.6% over 7 days)
Bold: ADA's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 79 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next 7 days — real 4-hour closes, scaled to ADA's volatility.
Bad case$0.224−12%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.253−1.2%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.287+12%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−1.2%
Likely range
−12% to +12%$0.224 – $0.287
95 similar setups · our 7-day calls hit 59.4% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
ADA price prediction for the next 30 days
61%chance ADA is lower
▼ LEAN DOWN
Market cap $9.53B · large-cap
No pattern has a proven record on this coin yet — the prediction above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 39% chance higher in 30 days · drawn from its 79 matched past setups
next 30 days
−30%−20%−10%0%−50%0%+50%+21% in 30 days↑ 92% below its all-time high
−30dnow+30d
▲ 12 rose · ▼ 12 fell · ◆ 6 sideways(±7.5% over 30 days)
Bold: ADA's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 79 past setups like this, and what each did over the next 30 days — real daily closes, scaled to ADA's volatility.
Bad case$0.183−28%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.244−4.8%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.330+29%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−4.8%
Likely range
−28% to +29%$0.183 – $0.330
79 similar setups · our 30-day calls hit 63.7% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
Pick a side, when you close and your leverage: we replay that exact trade on the past cases behind this ADA prediction and count how it ended.
Best historical window for ADA in setups like this: short, hold 7 days, 4× — profitable 57.6% of the time, typical +5.2%, liquidated 8.1% of the time (n=79).
Chance this ends in profit—
Typical result—half did better, half worse
Chance you get liquidated first—
Every past case, replayedhover or tap a line to see the case
price went your way —against you —sideways —(within ±2.6% over 7 days)✕liquidated —take profit hit —stop loss hit —typical8 in 10 cases
Replays 279 past cases weighted exactly like the 30-day prediction: the 79 similar cases behind it plus a sample of all history.
Where the odds were best· swipe for longer holds →
cell = chance of profit color = average result, −50% or worse to +50% or better striped = liquidated in more than 1 in 10★ best: highest typical result with at most 1 in 10 liquidated, most cases in profit and an average above zerono take profit or stop loss · tap a cell to load it
The planner and its replay chart run in your browser: turn on JavaScript to replay your own ADA trade on these past cases.
Odds from similar past cases, not financial advice. Leverage multiplies losses too: a liquidated position loses its whole margin.
Where to trade ADA · by share of the last day's volume
ADA$0.245051% ▼ 1Dbest play▼ Short 1D 4× → +0.8%open calculator
ADA$0.245056% ▼ 7Dbest play▼ Short 7D 4× → +5.2%open calculator
ADA$0.245061% ▼ 30Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 30Dopen calculator
2
Why we think this
the reasoning, in short
Drivers
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in ADA's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (100 cases) into 49% higher.
Large-cap
Large-cap coin ($9.5B market cap). Coins this size were higher a day later 49% of the time (6,755 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 49% · normal 46% higher a day later
79% below its high
79% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher a day later 47% of the time (131,564 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 47% · normal 46% higher a day later
Up 21% over 30 days
Up 21% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (39,806 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Normal volume
Trading volume is in its normal range. On normal-volume days, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (168,672 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 7 days later 42% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in ADA's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (95 cases) into 44% higher.
Large-cap
Large-cap coin ($9.5B market cap). Coins this size were higher a week later 46% of the time (6,707 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Up 21% over 30 days
Up 21% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a week later 43% of the time (38,824 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 43% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a week later 42% of the time (88,458 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Within 7% of a week ago
Within 7% of its price a week ago (+0%). After a week like that, coins were higher a week later 42% of the time (88,734 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 30 days later 37% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in ADA's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (79 cases) into 39% higher.
Large-cap
Large-cap coin ($9.5B market cap). Coins this size were higher 30 days later 43% of the time (6,555 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 43% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher 30 days later 39% of the time (82,194 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 39% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Up 21% over 30 days
Up 21% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (35,679 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
79% below its high
79% below its all-time high. Coins that far below their high were higher 30 days later 38% of the time (124,083 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 38% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Our record on ADA
Our last 6 calls on ADA over 30 days: right on 0 of 6 · 3 of 6 ended inside our range · all-time on ADA: 57.4% hit rate, 79.2% inside the range (47 backtested calls)
Jul 26 said 68% down · ended +26.0%✗ wrongAug 2 said 56% down · ended +3.8%✗ wrongAug 9 said 68% down · ended +12.9%✗ wrongAug 16 said 66% down · ended +11.7%✗ wrongAug 23 said 69% down · ended +12.0%✗ wrongAug 30 said 72% down · ended +26.9%✗ wrong
white: ADA's real price after each call · bar: the range we gave (8 in 10 cases, the middle half thicker, a notch at the typical move) · end dot: green right · red wrong · orange the price went sideways (within ±5.5% over 30 days) or a coin flip · backtest: each call used only data available that day · live since Oct 3, 2026: 2 live 30-day predictions on record, first result due Nov 2, 2026 · the full scorecard →
last 6 months · daily close · candle = 2 sessions◆ recorded event · dotted blue line = last price · orange = the price went sideways (within ±1.4% over 2 days)
as of · generated from this record's own rowsread it →
events on record
13
higher 30 days after
1 of 1
typical 30-day move
+127.7%
next up
—
Every eventMEASURED13 events
The record: every event and what followed
as of · CoinPaprika · DefiLlama · exchange announcements · PatternPlus effectsread it →
ADA: 13 events, newest first; six signed numbers per row are the price change from the close before the event, in UTC; vs BTC is the difference of the two 30-day moves
Plomin (full community governance), a network upgrade, 21:45 UTC (cardano.org: Hard forks (every Cardano hard fork and its date)). The move is the coin's, from the close before that day. ADA saw a network upgrade on Jan 29, 2025; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
On Oct 22, 2024ADA made the news; it fell 3.1% by day 1 and was 127.7% higher 30 days later, 82 points ahead of BTC; it had moved −0.9% in the 7 days before.
Chang (on-chain governance), a network upgrade (cardano.org: Hard forks (every Cardano hard fork and its date)). The move is the coin's, from the close before that day. ADA saw a network upgrade on Sep 1, 2024; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Vasil, a network upgrade (cardano.org: Hard forks (every Cardano hard fork and its date)). The move is the coin's, from the close before that day. ADA saw a network upgrade on Sep 22, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Alonzo (smart contracts), a network upgrade (cardano.org: Hard forks (every Cardano hard fork and its date)). The move is the coin's, from the close before that day. ADA saw a network upgrade on Sep 12, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
all-time high ADA all-time high: $3.10
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—
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derived
Highest daily close in our price history. ADA set an all-time high on Sep 2, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
ADA-USDT spot trading (quotes: EUR, TRY, USDT, USDC). OKX listed ADA on Jan 29, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
ADA-USDT-SWAP perpetual trading (quotes: USD, USDT). OKX opened perpetual futures for ADA on Feb 28, 2020; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Source: PatternPlus, computed from every token in the peer set · fetched
4
The full write-up
every sentence on ADA · questions · sources
ADA in short
Cardano (ADA) is an L1 token on Cardano, on the record since Sep 29, 2017; rank #19 by market cap as of Oct 4, 2026, 92.1% below its Sep 2, 2021 high.
As of Oct 4, 2026 the price is $0.2450 (+2.3% over 24 hours), market cap $9.53B, fully diluted value $11.02B, holder count not reported, no TVL reported to DefiLlama.
Tags on CoinPaprika as of Oct 4, 2026: Decentralized Applications, Smart Contracts, Token Issuance, Proof Of Stake, Platform, Layer 1 (L1), Alleged SEC Securities, Made in USA.
Status on CoinPaprika: active; ADA is the native coin of Cardano, so there is no token contract.
CoinPaprika tickers and DefiLlama, read Oct 4, 2026.
As of Oct 4, 2026 the record for Cardano runs to 13 events, of which 2 are spot listings, 3 perpetual listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 funding rounds; 1 carry a day-30 measurement with a median of +127.7%.
From the latest data refresh
Cardano (ADA) is an L1 token on Cardano, rank #19 by market cap as of Oct 4, 2026, 92.1% below its Sep 2, 2021 high.
Across 1 measured events the median day-30 move was +127.7%.
Since PatternPlus began recording on Oct 3, 2026 (2 daily snapshots), rank moved from #19 to #19.
ADA is on 76 spot and 8 perpetual venues on record; the earliest dated listing was OKX (perp) on Feb 28, 2020.
No listing of ADA has a measurable day-30 outcome yet as of Oct 4, 2026.
No unlock schedule is on record for ADA as of Oct 4, 2026.
No on-chain power check is on record for ADA as of Oct 4, 2026.
No funding round is recorded by DefiLlama for Cardano as of Oct 4, 2026.
Cardano lists 0 audit links on DefiLlama; no hack is recorded as of Oct 4, 2026.
78 people appear on this record (Akihiro Yabe, Alexander Diemand, Alexander Nemish and Alexander Vieth); none appears on another record.
DefiLlama reports not reported TVL and $10,932 revenue over 30 days as of Oct 4, 2026;
revenue to market cap of 0.000 sits at the 50th percentile of 10 L1 tokens.
The largest audience count is 1,357,301 twitter followers, read on Oct 4, 2026.
Development: 80 commits in 90 days on IntersectMBO/ouroboros-network, last commit Oct 2, 2026.
Generated from this record's own rows at build time; as of Oct 4, 2026.
Across 1 recorded events across every token on record, the median move is −3.1% on day 1 and +127.7% by day 30; 100.0% were still up after 30 days; ADA's one sits below that median at +127.7%.
ADA sits above the venue median in 0 of 1 venue-and-kind comparisons as of Oct 4, 2026.
event_stats recomputed nightly; as of Oct 4, 2026.
No on-chain power check is available for ADA on Cardano as of Oct 4, 2026; every row of the panel is shown as unknown until GoPlus or the Jupiter token API answers.
Until then this site cannot say whether the issuer can mint, freeze or upgrade ADA; the check is retried at every rebuild.
13 events since Jan 30, 2020; 0 of the 1 measured were followed by a lower price 30 days later; best 18.53MM Token Unlock on Oct 22, 2024 (+127.7%), worst 18.53MM Token Unlock on Oct 22, 2024 (+127.7%).
1001 daily closes from Jan 8, 2024 to Oct 4, 2026 are plotted on a log scale, with the rank from 2 snapshots as a step line.
The all-time high marker sits at $3.1 on Sep 2, 2021, 1,858 days before Oct 4, 2026.
prices, metrics_daily, events and effects; as of Oct 4, 2026.
3 changes are logged for this page since Oct 4, 2026; the latest, on Oct 4, 2026, is: New record entry (paprika event, Jul 2, 2020): The Cardano Virtual Summit.
As of Oct 4, 2026ADA trades on 76 spot venues and 8 perpetual venues with dated listings, from OKX on Feb 28, 2020 to OKX on Jan 29, 2021; the first perpetual opened on OKX on Feb 28, 2020, 336 days before the first spot pair.
0 delistings are on record for ADA as of Oct 4, 2026.
1004 of the 1087 tracked exchanges have no ADA listing on record as of Oct 4, 2026 (UZX, Ourbit, Maker DAO PSM, TruBit Pro, BigONE and Pancakeswap V3 (BSC), among others).
exchange_listings from instrument APIs and announcements; as of Oct 4, 2026.
Cardano trades 92.1% below its all-time high of $3.1, set on Sep 2, 2021, 1,858 days before Oct 4, 2026; over 30 days it moved 0.0% against 0.0% for BTC (beta 1.61).
Price change as of Oct 4, 2026: −0.3% over 1 hour, +2.3% over 24 hours, −3.8% over 7 days, 0.0% over 30 days, 0.0% over 1 year.
With $9.53B market cap against $11.02B fully diluted, 13.5% of ADA's valuation is in non-circulating supply as of Oct 4, 2026.
24-hour volume of $248.8M is 2.6% of market cap as of Oct 4, 2026.
Circulating supply is 38.91B of 45B total (86.5%) and a maximum of 45B.
The L1 median 30-day change is 0.0% across 10 tokens, so ADA sits below its peer set.
CoinPaprika tickers read Oct 4, 2026; BTC comparison from the BTC record.
Cardano has 1 contract or mint address on record across 1 chain (cardano); it is the native coin of Cardano.
Description as published on CoinPaprika: Cardano (ADA) is a decentralized platform that enables the development and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications with a focus on scalability, sustainability, and interoperability. It utilizes a unique proof-of-stake consensus mechanism called Ouroboros to enhance energy efficiency. Source: CoinPaprika.com
No other token on record uses the symbol ADA as of Oct 4, 2026.
Cardano shares its ticker with ADA (ADA the Dog), ADA (Andrace), ADA (CARDANO (PRC-20 Token)), ADA (Cardano Inu) and ADA (Cardano Token) (ticker collision on CoinPaprika, read Oct 4, 2026).
Identity fields from CoinPaprika as of Oct 4, 2026: started Sep 29, 2017, first market data Oct 1, 2017, proof type Proof of Stake, organisation Semi-centralized, whitepaper https://static.coinpaprika.com/storage/cdn/whitepapers/10561233.pdf.
Cross-references as of Oct 4, 2026: CoinPaprika id ada-cardano, DefiLlama slug cardano, GitHub input-output-hk/ouroboros-network.
When the links were last read on Oct 4, 2026 the counts were 1,357,301 twitter followers, 690,364 reddit subscribers and 47,703 telegram members.
CoinPaprika /coins and DefiLlama /protocols (contract addresses), token_contracts, token_aliases; read Oct 4, 2026.
Cardano reported $54,662 in fees and $10,932 in revenue over 30 days to DefiLlama on not reported TVL as of Oct 4, 2026; its revenue-to-market-cap ratio of 0.000 is at the 50th percentile of 10 L1 tokens.
Annualised revenue of $131,184 gives a price-to-sales multiple of 72674.6x at the $9.53B market cap of Oct 4, 2026.
DefiLlama records no parent protocol for Cardano (not a fork).
No oracle is listed for Cardano on DefiLlama.
DefiLlama lists Cardano under 'Chain' (slug cardano).
DefiLlama protocol, fees and TVL endpoints; as of Oct 4, 2026.
IntersectMBO/ouroboros-network, the main repository, shows 80 commits over 90 days, 296 stars and 99 contributors; the last commit landed on Oct 2, 2026, 2 days before Oct 4, 2026.
The repository was created on Sep 19, 2018, is written mainly in Haskell and has 105 forks and 353 open issues.
Set against 10 L1 tokens on Oct 4, 2026, Cardano ranks at the 40th percentile for market cap, the 10th for distance from its high and the unranked for share of supply unlocked.
The peer median market cap is $9.97B, the median distance from ATH −78.1% and the median 30-day change 0.0%.
The nearest peers by rank are Monero (#14), Zcash (#10), Litecoin (#29), Sui (#30) and Avalanche (#32).
Market cap: $9.53B (P40 of 10; peer median $9.97B).
Volume / market cap (24h): 2.61% (P50 of 10; peer median 2.10%).
30-day change: 0.0% (P45 of 10; peer median 0.0%).
Distance from ATH: −92.1% (P10 of 10; peer median −78.1%).
Revenue / market cap (30d): 0.000 (too few peers (4) for a percentile).
Commits in 90 days: 80 (P29 of 7; peer median 220).
As of Oct 4, 2026: 51% chance ADA is lower tomorrow — a coin flip, typical move −0.0%, likely range −3.0% to +3.6%, from 100 similar past setups.
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
What is the Cardano price prediction for this week?
As of Oct 4, 2026: 56% chance ADA is lower over the next 7 days, typical move −1.2%, likely range −12.3% to +12.0%, from 95 similar past setups.
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
What is the ADA price prediction for the next 30 days?
As of Oct 4, 2026: 61% chance ADA is lower over the next 30 days, typical move −4.8%, likely range −28.3% to +29.1%, from 79 similar past setups.
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
How accurate are these ADA predictions?
Across 47 backtested 30-day calls on ADA, the call was right 57.4% of the time and the price ended inside the likely range 79.2% of the time.
Of the last 6 30-day calls, 0 of 6 were right.
Each backtest call used only the data available on its own date.
Who is behind Cardano?
Akihiro Yabe (Senior Manager, Corporate Department Emurgo), Alexander Diemand (Developer), Alexander Nemish (Engineer) and Alexander Vieth (Developer) appear on CoinPaprika's team list for Cardano as of Oct 4, 2026;
each has a career record on this site.
When is the next ADA unlock?
No future unlock is on record for ADA as of Oct 4, 2026.
Is ADA listed on Binance?
Yes; Binance listed ADA.
How far is ADA from its all-time high?
92.1% below the $3.1 high of Sep 2, 2021, 1,858 days ago, at $0.2450 on Oct 4, 2026.
Has Cardano been hacked?
No hack is on record for Cardano as of Oct 4, 2026; 0 audit links are listed.
Related records
Related records
as of · chosen deterministically from the joins on this page
10 related token records are linked below, plus 83 exchanges (Azbit, BTC Markets, BTCTurk, BTSE, BYDFi (Spot) and Batonex), 78 people (Akihiro Yabe, Alexander Diemand, Alexander Nemish and Alexander Vieth) as of Oct 4, 2026.
3 of 5 coins with 120+ days of supply history release on a monthly or quarterly pattern; 14 releases projected: APT (monthly, day 14), ARB (quarterly, day 18), ENA (monthly, day 6)
2026-10-04 19:24 UTC
none
—
teamfinance
0 of 5 coins hold Team Finance vesting; 4 contracts still being read for the first time
—
2026-10-04T19:23:55+00:00 Ethereum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY; Optimism logs: HTTP 429; Polygon logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY; Base logs: HTTP 429; Arbitrum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY
Effects are measured as described on the methodology page. Facts are compiled from public sources; nothing on this page is advice. Corrections: [email protected].
binance_instruments last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:42+00:00 451 Client Error: for url: https://fapi.binance.com/f), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
bybit_announcements last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:46+00:00 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.bybit), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
bybit_instruments last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:43+00:00 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.bybit), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
ethplorer last fetched successfully on Oct 4, 2026 19:21 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:21:17+00:00 HTTP 429 https://api.ethplorer.io/getTokenInfo/0x08280), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
hedgey last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:23:55+00:00 Ethereum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY;
Optimism logs: HTTP 4), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
This page is generated from 3,549 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 4, 2026.
PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this
Band 1 is the prediction: the chance of a higher price, the typical move and the likely range, with the real past setups behind it drawn as they moved.
Band 2 is why: the drivers, the next events and how our past calls on this coin went.
Band 3 is the data: every table and chart, dated; green means the price was higher afterwards, red lower.
Band 4 is the write-up: the same record in words, with the questions and the sources.
