$0.3866−2.6%24hmcap $285.1M · its own chain · rank #157
1
The prediction
as of Oct 4, 2026
DRV price prediction for tomorrow
54%chance DRV is lower
↔ COIN FLIP
Market cap $285.1M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 1-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 46% chance higher tomorrow · this pattern's 1d calls hit 46.4% of 10,929 — no better than a coin flip so far · drawn from the 185 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next day
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%−40%−20%0%+20%+40%+173% in 30 days↑ 23% below its all-time high
−30dnow+1d
▲ 11 rose · ▼ 10 fell · ◆ 9 sideways(±3.6% over 1 day)
Bold: DRV's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 185 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next day — real hourly closes, scaled to DRV's volatility. 30 with no hourly path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$0.321−22%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.408−0.7%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.490+19%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−0.7%
Likely range
−22% to +19%$0.321 – $0.490
204 similar setups · our 1-day calls hit 49.8% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
DRV price prediction for this week
58%chance DRV is lower
▼ LEAN DOWN
Market cap $285.1M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven 7-day record on this coin yet — the call above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 42% chance higher in 7 days · this pattern's 7d calls hit 59.3% of 36,473 — no better than always guessing the usual direction (60%) so far · drawn from the 185 setups matched for the 30-day prediction
next 7 days
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%−100%−50%0%+50%+100%+150%+173% in 30 days↑ 23% below its all-time high
−30dnow+7d
▲ 8 rose · ▼ 15 fell · ◆ 7 sideways(±12% over 7 days)
Bold: DRV's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 185 setups matched for the 30-day prediction, and what each did over the next 7 days — real 4-hour closes, scaled to DRV's volatility. 30 with no 4-hour path on file yet are drawn through their daily lows, highs and closes.
Bad case$0.240−42%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.383−6.8%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.693+68%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−6.8%
Likely range
−42% to +68%$0.240 – $0.693
199 similar setups · our 7-day calls hit 59.4% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
DRV price prediction for the next 30 days
66%chance DRV is lower
▼ STRONG DOWN
Market cap $285.1M · small-cap: thinner trading, bigger swings
No pattern has a proven record on this coin yet — the prediction above is from similar past setups.
Lookalike Setups (main) · 34% chance higher in 30 days · drawn from its 185 matched past setups
next 30 days
−60%−40%−20%0%+20%0%+200%+400%+173% in 30 days↑ 23% below its all-time high
−30dnow+30d
▲ 7 rose · ▼ 19 fell · ◆ 4 sideways(±26% over 30 days)
Bold: DRV's own last 30 days. Right of now: 30 of the 185 past setups like this, and what each did over the next 30 days — real daily closes, scaled to DRV's volatility.
Bad case$0.109−74%1 in 10 did worse
Likely$0.311−24.4%half did better, half worse
Good case$0.984+139%1 in 10 did better
Typical move
−24.4%
Likely range
−74% to +139%$0.109 – $0.984
185 similar setups · our 30-day calls hit 63.7% in backtests · no edge over the base rate yet · track record →
Prediction from past patterns, not financial advice.
Pick a side, when you close and your leverage: we replay that exact trade on the past cases behind this DRV prediction and count how it ended.
Best historical window for DRV in setups like this: short, hold 1 day, 1× — profitable 53.3% of the time, typical +0.9% (n=185).
Chance this ends in profit—
Typical result—half did better, half worse
Chance you get liquidated first—
Every past case, replayedhover or tap a line to see the case
price went your way —against you —sideways —(within ±1.0% over 1 day)✕liquidated —take profit hit —stop loss hit —typical8 in 10 cases
Replays 352 past cases weighted exactly like the 30-day prediction: the 185 similar cases behind it plus a sample of all history.
Where the odds were best· swipe for longer holds →
cell = chance of profit color = average result, −50% or worse to +50% or better striped = liquidated in more than 1 in 10★ best: highest typical result with at most 1 in 10 liquidated, most cases in profit and an average above zerono take profit or stop loss · tap a cell to load it
The planner and its replay chart run in your browser: turn on JavaScript to replay your own DRV trade on these past cases.
Odds from similar past cases, not financial advice. Leverage multiplies losses too: a liquidated position loses its whole margin.
Where to trade DRV · by share of the last day's volume
DRV$0.386654% ▼ 1Dbest play▼ Short 1D 1× → +0.9%open calculator
DRV$0.386658% ▼ 7Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 7Dopen calculator
DRV$0.386666% ▼ 30Dbest playno play cleared the bar at 30Dopen calculator
2
Why we think this
the reasoning, in short
Drivers
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in DRV's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (204 cases) into 46% higher.
15% below its high
15% below its all-time high. Coins this close to their high were higher a day later 45% of the time (8,130 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 45% · normal 46% higher a day later
Up 173% over 30 days
Up 173% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (39,806 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Normal volume
Trading volume is in its normal range. On normal-volume days, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (168,672 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a day later 46% of the time (90,261 cases), vs 46% across all cases.
here 46% · normal 46% higher a day later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 7 days later 42% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in DRV's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (199 cases) into 42% higher.
15% below its high
15% below its all-time high. Coins this close to their high were higher a week later 44% of the time (8,077 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 44% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Up 173% over 30 days
Up 173% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher a week later 43% of the time (38,824 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 43% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher a week later 42% of the time (88,458 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($285.1M market cap). Coins this size were higher a week later 42% of the time (63,184 cases), vs 42% across all cases.
here 42% · normal 42% higher 7 days later
Starting point: across all past cases, coins were higher 30 days later 37% of the time. Each factor below shows how often that happened in DRV's situation; the call blends them with the closest match (185 cases) into 34% higher.
15% below its high
15% below its all-time high. Coins this close to their high were higher 30 days later 40% of the time (7,896 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 40% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Bitcoin above its 50-day average
Bitcoin is above its 50-day average. In that situation, coins were higher 30 days later 39% of the time (82,194 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 39% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Up 173% over 30 days
Up 173% over the last 30 days. After a month like that, coins were higher 30 days later 34% of the time (35,679 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 34% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Small-cap
Small-cap coin ($285.1M market cap). Coins this size were higher 30 days later 35% of the time (61,807 cases), vs 37% across all cases.
here 35% · normal 37% higher 30 days later
Our record on DRV
Our last 6 calls on DRV over 30 days: right on 0 of 6 · 2 of 6 ended inside our range · all-time on DRV: 38.3% hit rate, 68.8% inside the range (47 backtested calls)
Jul 26 said 73% down · ended +28.6%✗ wrongAug 2 said 72% down · ended +44.3%✗ wrongAug 9 said 75% down · ended +68.5%✗ wrongAug 16 said 66% down · ended +32.4%✗ wrongAug 23 said 70% down · ended +231.3%✗ wrongAug 30 said 68% down · ended +146.2%✗ wrong
white: DRV's real price after each call · bar: the range we gave (8 in 10 cases, the middle half thicker, a notch at the typical move) · end dot: green right · red wrong · orange the price went sideways (within ±5.5% over 30 days) or a coin flip · backtest: each call used only data available that day · live since Oct 4, 2026: 1 live 30-day prediction on record, first result due Nov 3, 2026 · the full scorecard →
last 6 months · daily close · candle = 2 sessions◆ recorded event · dotted blue line = last price · orange = the price went sideways (within ±1.4% over 2 days)
updated today Updated · 57 data points on this page
Changed 2026-10-04 Issuer powers first recorded on Oct 4, 2026: mint authority unknown, freeze authority unknown, upgrade key unknown, admin keys held, honeypot unknown, pause unknown, blacklist unknown, transfer tax unknown.2026-10-04 event hallmark → 3,4122026-10-04 event hallmark → 3,4132026-10-04 event hallmark → 3,414full log →
The record in shortON RECORD
The record in short
as of · generated from this record's own rowsread it →
events on record
7
higher 30 days after
—
typical 30-day move
—
next up
—
Every eventMEASURED7 events
The record: every event and what followed
as of · CoinPaprika · DefiLlama · exchange announcements · PatternPlus effectsread it →
DRV: 7 events, newest first; six signed numbers per row are the price change from the close before the event, in UTC; vs BTC is the difference of the two 30-day moves
Date
Event
Venue
7d before
Next day
7 days
30 days
vs BTC
90 days
Source
2026
all-time high DRV all-time high: $0.5003
—
+218.3%
+3.9%
−10.6%
in 19 days
in 19 days
in 79 days
derived
Highest daily close in our price history. DRV set an all-time high on Sep 23, 2026; the day-30 effect will be recorded in 19 days (day 1: +3.9%).
2023
hallmark Launch on Arbitrum
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Jan 30, 2023; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
2022
hallmark OP Rewards Distribution Start
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Aug 3, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Lyra Avalon Start
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Jun 27, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Lyra V1.1 End
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Jun 16, 2022; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
2021
hallmark Token Program Start
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Nov 2, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
hallmark Lyra Token
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
defillama
DRV saw a hallmark on Oct 26, 2021; the price series does not cover the 30-day window, so no effect is measured.
Source: events from CoinPaprika, DefiLlama and exchange announcements; effects computed by PatternPlus (see methodology) · fetched
Against the venue medianMEASURED
How DRV's events compare with the venue median
as of · event_stats computed by PatternPlusread it →
Venue · kind
DRV median day 30
DRV n
Venue median day 30
Venue n
Up after 30 d (venue)
Position
No measured event to compare as of Oct 4, 2026
Venue · kind
DRV median day 7
DRV n
Venue median day 7
Venue n
Up after 7 d (venue)
Position
all venues · all-time high
−10.6%
1
−17.7%
—
—
above
Day 7: the venue's event count and up-share are kept for day 30 only (—); its median uses every event measured to day 7.
Venue · kind
DRV median day 1
DRV n
Venue median day 1
Venue n
Up after 1 d (venue)
Position
all venues · all-time high
+3.9%
1
−4.1%
—
—
above
Day 1: the venue's event count and up-share are kept for day 30 only (—); its median uses every event measured to day 1.
Venue
Kind
n
Median next day
Median 7 days
Median 30 days
Up after 30 days
Mean 30 days
all venues
all-time high
429
−4.1%
−17.7%
−40.3%
6.1%
−38.9%
all venues
hallmark
27
−1.7%
−3.2%
−4.3%
40.7%
−0.8%
computed 2026-10-04 from every measured event on record
Source: event_stats, all measured events on record · fetched
Issuer powersON RECORD
What the issuer can do to DRV holders (checked Oct 4, 2026)
Issuer powers first recorded on Oct 4, 2026: mint authority unknown, freeze authority unknown, upgrade key unknown, admin keys held, honeypot unknown, pause unknown, blacklist unknown, transfer tax unknown.
event
hallmark
3,412
New record entry (hallmark, Oct 26, 2021): Lyra Token.
event
hallmark
3,413
New record entry (hallmark, Nov 2, 2021): Token Program Start.
event
hallmark
3,414
New record entry (hallmark, Jun 16, 2022): Lyra V1.1 End.
event
hallmark
3,415
New record entry (hallmark, Jun 27, 2022): Lyra Avalon Start.
event
hallmark
3,416
New record entry (hallmark, Aug 3, 2022): OP Rewards Distribution Start.
event
hallmark
3,417
New record entry (hallmark, Jan 30, 2023): Launch on Arbitrum.
OUR NUMBERS ABOVE · PUBLIC FACTS BELOW
Where DRV is listedON RECORD2 venues
Where DRV is listed: spot and perpetuals, with dates
as of · exchange instrument APIs · announcementsread it →
Exchange coverage matrix: 2 venues on record; cell text is the listing date
Source: PatternPlus, computed from every token in the peer set · fetched
4
The full write-up
every sentence on DRV · questions · sources
DRV in short
Derive (DRV), a crypto token on its own chain with no start date recorded, stands at rank #157 by market cap as of Oct 4, 2026, 22.7% below its Sep 23, 2026 high.
As of Oct 4, 2026 the price is $0.3866 (−2.6% over 24 hours), market cap $285.1M, fully diluted value $386.6M, 54,251 holders, $195M TVL.
Status on CoinPaprika: active; DRV is the native coin of its own chain, so there is no token contract.
CoinPaprika tickers and DefiLlama, read Oct 4, 2026.
This site has 7 past events for Derive: 0 exchange listings, 0 futures listings, 0 unlocks, 0 hacks and 0 funding rounds; the median 30-day move after the 0 measured events was not yet measurable.
From the latest data refresh
Derive (DRV), crypto on its own chain, holds rank #157 by market cap on Oct 4, 2026 and trades 22.7% under its Sep 23, 2026 high.
7 events are on record as of Oct 4, 2026.
Since PatternPlus began recording on Oct 3, 2026 (2 daily snapshots), rank moved from #157 to #157.
No exchange listing with a date is on record for DRV as of Oct 4, 2026.
No listing of DRV has a measurable day-30 outcome yet as of Oct 4, 2026.
No unlock schedule is on record for DRV as of Oct 4, 2026.
The issuer holds 1 of 1 checked powers (admin keys); 12 were not checked.
No funding round is recorded by DefiLlama for Derive as of Oct 4, 2026.
Derive lists 1 audit link on DefiLlama; no hack is recorded as of Oct 4, 2026.
No team member is recorded on CoinPaprika for Derive as of Oct 4, 2026.
DefiLlama reports $195M TVL and $548,003 revenue over 30 days as of Oct 4, 2026;
revenue to market cap of 0.023 sits at the 62nd percentile of 1495 all tokens on record tokens.
Generated from this record's own rows at build time; as of Oct 4, 2026.
The issuer holds 1 of 1 checked powers as of Oct 4, 2026; 12 not checked, 0 not applicable.
Admin keys are held (ethplorer+dexscreener, checked Oct 4, 2026): admin keys exist that can change protocol parameters without a holder vote.
Whether the issuer can mint new tokens, freeze accounts, upgrade the contract, change balances, act through a hidden owner, blacklist addresses, restrict transfers to a whitelist, pause transfers, take a tax on purchases, take a tax on sales, block resale and hide the contract source was not checked: no ethplorer+dexscreener response for those fields on Ethereum as of Oct 4, 2026.
The owner address on Ethereum is 0x169a99b9958386a5d91e732ed08b344946a92391 (ethplorer+dexscreener, checked Oct 4, 2026).
security rows per chain and tokens.powers; vocabulary fixed: held, revoked, unknown; checked Oct 4, 2026.
The change log holds 7 entries between Oct 4, 2026 and Oct 4, 2026; the newest reads: Issuer powers first recorded on Oct 4, 2026: mint authority unknown, freeze authority unknown, upgrade key unknown, admin keys held, honeypot unknown, pause unknown, blacklist unknown, transfer tax unknown.
Changed since Oct 4, 2026: powers set to mint_authority=unknown freeze_authority=unknown upgradeable=unknown admin_keys=held honeypot=unknown pausable=unknown blacklist=unknown tax=unknown (Oct 4) · event hallmark → 3,412 (Oct 4) · event hallmark → 3,413 (Oct 4) · event hallmark → 3,414 (Oct 4).
The fields that changed most often were event (6) and powers (1).
Changes logged for this record: 7 in the last 30 days as of Oct 4, 2026.
The all-time high on record for Derive is $0.5003 on Sep 23, 2026, 11 days ago as of Oct 4, 2026; the price is 22.7% below it; over 30 days it moved 0.0% against 0.0% for BTC (beta 1.36).
Price change as of Oct 4, 2026: +0.6% over 1 hour, −2.6% over 24 hours, −8.8% over 7 days, 0.0% over 30 days, 0.0% over 1 year.
Market cap is 73.8% of fully diluted value ($285.1M of $386.6M), so 26.2% of the valuation sits in supply that does not circulate yet.
24-hour volume of $7.3M is 2.6% of market cap as of Oct 4, 2026.
Circulating supply is 737.5M of 1B total (73.8%) and a maximum of 1B.
The all tokens on record median 30-day change is 0.0% across 1495 tokens, so DRV sits below its peer set.
CoinPaprika tickers read Oct 4, 2026; BTC comparison from the BTC record.
Derive has 1 contract or mint address on record across 1 chain (ethereum); it is the native coin of its own chain.
No other token on record uses the symbol DRV as of Oct 4, 2026.
Derive shares its ticker with DRV (Dragon Verse) (ticker collision on CoinPaprika, read Oct 4, 2026).
Identity fields from CoinPaprika as of Oct 4, 2026: start date not recorded, first market data Mar 8, 2025, proof type not stated, organisation structure not stated, no whitepaper link.
Cross-references as of Oct 4, 2026: CoinPaprika id drv7-derive, DefiLlama slug lyra, no GitHub repository recorded.
No follower or star counts were read for Derive as of Oct 4, 2026.
CoinPaprika /coins and DefiLlama /protocols (contract addresses), token_contracts, token_aliases; read Oct 4, 2026.
Over the 30 days to Oct 4, 2026 DefiLlama records $690,166 of fees and $548,003 of revenue for Derive, against $195M of TVL; revenue to market cap is 0.023, the 62nd percentile among 1495 all tokens on record tokens.
Annualised revenue of $6.6M gives a price-to-sales multiple of 43.4x at the $285.1M market cap of Oct 4, 2026.
TVL moved +59867.5% between Sep 1, 2021 and Oct 4, 2026 (346 daily points).
Base carries 28.3% of TVL across 7 chains (Base $55.2M, Hyperliquid L1 $51.6M, Ethereum $35.8M, Optimism $32.6M and Arbitrum $19.8M).
DefiLlama records no parent protocol for Derive (not a fork).
2 oracles are listed on DefiLlama: Chainlink and Pyth.
DefiLlama lists Derive under 'Derivatives' since Dec 15, 2023 (slug lyra).
DefiLlama protocol, fees and TVL endpoints; as of Oct 4, 2026.
Among 1495 all tokens on record tokens, Derive is at the 90th percentile by market cap, 94th by distance from ATH and unranked by share unlocked as of Oct 4, 2026.
The peer median market cap is $13.9M, the median distance from ATH −94.9% and the median 30-day change 0.0%.
By holders DRV sits at P65 (54,251 against a median of 27,132); by exchanges at PNone.
The nearest peers by rank are Celestia (#156), Ether.fi Staked BTC (#158), Bonk (#155), Kite (#159) and Arweave (#154).
Market cap: $285.1M (P90 of 1495; peer median $13.9M).
Volume / market cap (24h): 2.57% (P51 of 1495; peer median 2.47%).
30-day change: 0.0% (P50 of 1495; peer median 0.0%).
Distance from ATH: −22.7% (P94 of 1495; peer median −94.9%).
Revenue / market cap (30d): 0.023 (P62 of 279; peer median 0.006).
Holders: 54,251 (P65 of 178; peer median 27,132).
TVL: $195M (P79 of 419; peer median $5.5M).
peer set: all tokens on record (1495 tokens); as of Oct 4, 2026.
3 of 5 coins with 120+ days of supply history release on a monthly or quarterly pattern; 14 releases projected: APT (monthly, day 14), ARB (quarterly, day 18), ENA (monthly, day 6)
2026-10-04 19:24 UTC
none
—
teamfinance
0 of 5 coins hold Team Finance vesting; 4 contracts still being read for the first time
—
2026-10-04T19:23:55+00:00 Ethereum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY; Optimism logs: HTTP 429; Polygon logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY; Base logs: HTTP 429; Arbitrum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY
Effects are measured as described on the methodology page. Facts are compiled from public sources; nothing on this page is advice. Corrections: [email protected].
binance_instruments last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:42+00:00 451 Client Error: for url: https://fapi.binance.com/f), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
bybit_announcements last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:46+00:00 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.bybit), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
bybit_instruments last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:24:43+00:00 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.bybit), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
ethplorer last fetched successfully on Oct 4, 2026 19:21 UTC;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:21:17+00:00 HTTP 429 https://api.ethplorer.io/getTokenInfo/0x08280), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
hedgey last fetched successfully on an unrecorded time;
the latest fetch failed (2026-10-04T19:23:55+00:00 Ethereum logs: no ETHERSCAN_KEY;
Optimism logs: HTTP 4), so its figures are shown from that earlier run.
This page is generated from 5,792 database rows and rebuilt daily; first published Oct 4, 2026.
PatternPlus compiles facts from public sources and gives no financial advice; corrections by email. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this
Band 1 is the prediction: the chance of a higher price, the typical move and the likely range, with the real past setups behind it drawn as they moved.
Band 2 is why: the drivers, the next events and how our past calls on this coin went.
Band 3 is the data: every table and chart, dated; green means the price was higher afterwards, red lower.
Band 4 is the write-up: the same record in words, with the questions and the sources.